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Global Markets Analysis – 02 July 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


01.07.2015 周三 美国农业部报收数据低于市场预期;美大豆美豆油飙涨

美盘豆油12月合约周二受利好长阳上涨后,昨日周三晚间又长阴下跌,期价反复性震荡走势明显,表明市场人心不稳,单边性行情不明显。考虑到日K线图表上多头排列的均线系统,以及波峰波谷依次震荡爬升的短线趋势,仅当期价下破60天均线方为短线多单止损位,在此之前我们仍短多观点看待美盘豆油。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1601主力合约,紧紧追随美盘豆油短线走势,虽然内盘豆油短线走势有过过激行为,后在美盘豆油指引下,又恢复常态,当前期价仍受下方60天均线支撑。

马盘毛棕榈油基准9月,回落到下方60天线后短暂受到支撑,在美盘豆油形势不稳以及国际原油短线价格下挫影响下,期价也呈震荡走势,后市仍需密切关注美盘豆油的指引作用。

小结:全球油脂类商品豆油与棕榈油整理消息面信息暂告一段落,短期内无新消息,整体呈现消息匮乏。当然不排除希腊债务问题间接性影响到期货市场人气。美盘豆油的短线反复走势令内盘与马盘短线走势困惑,市场交易人气趋于谨慎。个人前期把冲高回落的终极目标定位到下方60天均线位置,当前建议仍延续此观点,未出现下破60天线,仍旧以短多观点看待油脂商品的短线走势。个人观点认为长中与短线多单继续持仓。其中短线多单要更多的时刻保持谨慎态度。建议焦点目光仍密切关注美盘豆油的表现。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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