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Global Markets Analysis – 02 June 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


02.06.2016 周四 美盘豆油上涨加速;触底后的短线反弹上行走势延续中

美盘黄豆连期价再创近2年来新高,筑大底之后的反身上行走势相当明显。相对应美盘豆油来说,当前期价就显得低了很多(与美大豆比较来说,此刻应该在37.00一线)美盘豆强而美豆油弱迹象相对明显些,还好美盘豆油昨日周三晚间稍微出现了凌厉走势,期价红盘中阳上涨,逐步脱离低位的横盘震荡区域,期价已经临近我们预期中反弹的第一目标位-原上升趋势线位置(反抽32.70一线)。后市美豆油7月合约,将对该位置发起挑战。是上破还是被阻挡依旧是我们所关注的焦点。 若后市短线真站于上升趋势线上方,我们将反弹目标则放大到第二目标位-原来上升通道的上边轨位置(当前是下边轨位置)。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,今天周四早盘,内盘油脂商品低开高走,在美盘上涨提振下,内盘油脂中阳表现,后市短线向上反弹的动能仍然存在,我们继续短多观点对待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准8月,在美盘与内盘油脂商品普遍走高情况下,马盘棕榈周四早盘高开,虽然盘中高开低走,但期价仍在60天均线上方运行(2610上方),单独从马盘棕榈油来说-马棕榈油7月下破上升趋势线仅仅短暂三天,马棕榈8月下破前低(5月3日的低点 2528令吉特)也是三天-这典型的是做了一个“空头陷阱”令逢低追空操作者全部被套,还好当前我们的操作建议是不追新空而是逢低平仓离场。当前技术分析马盘毛棕榈油-短线反弹延续中,期价临近4月5日、4月21日以及5月11日三者高点连线的压力位处-后市关注马盘棕榈油8月期价是否能站于该位置之上。

小结:美盘豆油昨日晚上出现上涨发力迹象,内盘与马盘油脂商品追随性上行, 油脂商品的短线反弹走势延续中,我们继续保持短多观点不变-观点认为操作上:中长短线多单继续持有。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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