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Global Markets Analysis – 02 May 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


02.05.2017 周二 美盘豆油空头回补 期价略有走高

5.1假期期间,美国最新大豆播种率为10%左右,后期农作物生长天气因素影响将增加。由于美盘豆油上净空单持仓庞大,空头主力的主动性减仓令美大豆美豆油期价走高(特别是美黄豆连)。而美豆油7月合约—-今天周二亚洲电子盘期价在32.30一线红盘波动(原低位横盘区间的上沿部位),期价仍存在上破的可能性,我们继续以中线回落整理之后的酝酿短线反弹拐点观点不变。

中国大陆内盘油脂商品市场,豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,今天周二节后市场恢复交易,早盘期价跳空高开高走红盘上涨表现,我们继续短多观点对待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,受周边外围市场走强影响,今天马盘棕榈油开盘也是跳空高开,上午盘十字星表现,多头主力的低位抵抗意识依然盘中显现,继续低位酝酿反弹观点对待。

小结:5.1假期期间,全球油脂类商品现货市场运行平稳,价格整体波动不大。今天五一劳动节后首日开盘交易,期价不同程度的上涨表现,我们继续以低位的短多观点对待。具体操作上:前期多单继续持有。部分手中无仓单的散户朋友,待美盘豆油7月合约上破横盘整理区间的上沿部位时候(站32.20之上 期价远离越高越可靠),可多单适量追进,后市短线我们继续看高一线。

[SUMMARY]
• Global edible oils trade flatly on May Day.
• Futures prices move up unevenly after market resumes trading after Labor Day holiday.
• Our outlook remains: seeking a low point to initiate short-term long position.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain long position.
• Retail traders with no position may enter into long position as soon as US July 2017 soybean oil breaks out of the sideway range.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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