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Global Markets Analysis – 02 November 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


02.11.2016 周三 美豆油期价下挫;短线的回落整理行情延续中

美盘豆油12月合约,昨日周二晚间又中阴下跌,短线走势上已经连续6-7天阴K线,盘中下坠态势越来越明显,期价已经由5日均线上方回落到下方的20天平均价格位置,回落整理走势开始明朗化,我们继续保持短线角度的下挫整理观点对待。 后市回落空间仍为我们最为关注的焦点。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,追随美盘豆油走低,虽然盘中期价偶尔呈现十字星走势,也仅仅表明有部分多头主力盘中护盘,但在短线整体走弱的盘面影响下,后市下方还有一定的回落空间,我们继续保持下挫整理观点对待,前期多单逢高出局后暂且场外观望,现在还远不到逢低接盘的时候。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,冲高回落整理走势也在延续中,昨日周二盘中的中阴下跌,瞬间令短线走势明朗化,我们继续保持短线角度上的下挫整理观点。

小结:油脂类商品短线角度的回落整理迹象转为明显,我们前期多日的担忧情绪演变为现实。当前油脂类商品的短线回落整理行情还要延续一段时间,下方的回落空间大小仍是我们主要关注的焦点。观点认为具体操作上:前期多单逢高出局后的稳健型交易者暂且场外观望,部分激进型短线交易者可按照昨日盘中操作建议-短空操作,日内平仓了结,不持仓过夜。建议耐心等待本波回落整理结束后的新的多单进场时机的把握。

[SUMMARY]
• As the downward correction of edible oils becomes more apparent, the anxiety we have had about the market is actualizing.
• With the short-term market correction expected to extend further, the extent to which it may go on becomes our main focus.

[ACTION]
• Passive traders who were able to close-out long positions and take profit at high prices may remain uncommitted.
• Aggressive traders may emulate the previous day’s strategy: enter into and close-out intraday short positions.
• We shall patiently wait for the market correction to subside while anticipating an opportunity to enter the market with long positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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