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Global Markets Analysis – 02 November 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


02.11.2017周四油脂类商品市场多空短线走势争夺激烈

美盘豆油12月合约,昨日周三晚间小幅红盘上涨表现,期价并未创新高。今天周四亚洲电子盘仍继续红盘表现。在前2日阴K线小幅下跌短线空头占得先机之后,多头主力再度发力反扑——多空主力在关键技术位的争夺仍较为激烈,市场在多空主力“拉锯战”中暂时失去方向感,而我们继续保持逢高阻击的短线操作观点不变。

大陆内盘油脂商品市场最近也是谣言不断——先是国内菜油国储拍卖传闻,造成期价小幅下跌。后经证实菜籽油暂不拍卖,随后期价再度小幅上涨。内盘油脂类商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约期价也随之上下波动,造成内盘投资人士心态不稳。我们不为所动—–继续保持短空之后的静观心态。

马盘毛棕榈油市场基本面最近也是矛盾重重——棕榈油需求好转以及马币令吉特的疲软支撑期价上行,而对于10月份棕榈油产量的增加担忧情绪又制约期价上涨高度,二种心态也令马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,期价出现宽幅震荡模式——对马盘毛棕榈油来说:我们继续保持在9月14日前高附近的阻击操作建议(2850左右加仓试盘空单,9.14日前高是2860,期价若站上2860之后,则在2870–2880止损,亏损10–20点空单出局。若期价不能上破2860前高而出现下挫,我们则空单持仓到2800下方X点,风险报酬比可达到4:1之上)因此操作思维上比较简单。

小结:美盘豆油在关键技术位位置多空争夺激烈,空头多头双方都不想放弃(分歧较大),造成美豆油短线盘面上形成“拉锯战”局面,美盘豆油后续走势的不确定性,造成内盘马盘油脂商品短线走势也出现情绪波动情况,我们心态则要保持稳定——继续逢高短空思维不变,不受市场情绪波动影响。具体操作上:前期空单继续持仓不动,静观美盘豆油后续表现。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil is struggling as the technical buying increased.
• China and Malaysia market is tracking strength in US soybean oil at the moment.
• Our short-term short outlook remains as the market is expected to move downward.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain short positions and observe the movements of US soybean oil.
• Traders may initiate short positions when the prices are high.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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