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Global Markets Analysis – 02 September 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


02.09.2016 周五 油脂类商品周五盘面上期价红盘上涨

美盘豆油12月,在连续7连阴下挫整理之后,昨日周四晚间以带下影线的阴K线收盘,在昨日报告中,我们就提到本波回落整理接近尾声阶段,仅等美盘止跌企稳的信号出现-今天周五亚洲电子盘以小阳K线表现,是否真正回落结束信号出现,我们尚待继续观察市场后续走势,但我们内心深处要提前明白,(接连下跌之后)下方的回落空间已经开始收窄,不可盲目看低很多了。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,今天周五盘面追随美盘豆油亚洲电子盘的红盘表现,期价低开高走,短线出现止跌的苗头,但一天的阳K线,我们尚不能完全确定本波回落整理已经宣告结束,尚需要下周盘面上连续动作的方向指引。

马盘毛棕榈油基准11,该品种近期短线走势上,我们屡次提到过马棕榈期价近期易于反复-果然,在昨日低开收阳后,今天期价又突然高开高走红盘上涨,在本波短线回落整理行情中,马棕榈抵抗性强势整理走势最为明显,多头主力丝毫未减弱做多信心,我们密切关注马盘棕榈油今天的表现在下周初是否得到延续(单日的跳空上涨只是提醒我们出现警惕信号,但还不能完全确定回落整理已经结束8月24日时候就发生过一次假信号)。

小结:油脂类商品今天周五盘面出现红盘上涨局面,预示着本波回落整理逐步靠近尾声阶段-是否真正的调整结束,尚待随后2日的盘面走势指引,从今天的马盘棕榈油11月走势观察,该迹象确实出现警惕苗头。我们短线观点需要保持谨慎一些-既由短空思维转为看空但不做空,观点认为具体操作上:中长线多单继续持有,而短线交易者场外观望,不追空但也不做多-耐心等待下周初的市场短线方向指引,待真正确认回落整理结束后,时刻准备我们短线多单逢低进场的机会。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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