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Global Markets Analysis – 03 August 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


03.08.2016 中国内盘与马盘油脂类商品短线反弹延续中

美盘豆油12月,上周五长阳K线,周一中阴K线,昨日周二晚间又红盘小阳表现-对于当前美盘豆油期价这种阴阳K线轮番波动震荡我们也有些醉了,在内心深处,我们只要坚信在期价超跌到30.00一线左右,下面的回落空间已经被技术封杀,短线角度的阶段性底部就在眼前,充分的回落整理之后的技术性反弹是我们所期望的,不被当前美盘这种模糊的震荡走势所迷惑,这就是我们对美盘豆油盘面的态度。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,当前期价短线走势始终保持跃跃欲试的反弹欲望,特别是内盘棕榈油1701主力合约,期价顽强的保持红盘表现(即使美盘周一的中阴K线也未影响到它),这与中国大陆当前极低的棕榈油库存分不开-提到当前国内棕榈油库存,瞬间就让我联想到 1609合约,当前98400手的持仓量,这空头主力那来这么大胆子持有空单,这很快临近9月份交割了,就即便空头主力把国内所有库存的棕榈油都买到手-也不过28-30万吨,这点数量如何够交割?此时若有个凶猛无比的多头主力在1609合约上进行“多头逼仓”,空头主力不被杀的片甲无存才怪!只可惜没用那家金融机构大鳄能慧眼认识到这点。不管市场多空主力如何闷着头厮杀了-我们散户朋友只要保持短线的短多观点不变就足以了。

马盘毛棕榈油基准10月,继昨日周二盘中低开高走红盘表现之后,今天周三早盘又跳空高开高走红盘表现,短线角度的期价始终保持一种震荡走高态势,我们的短多思维继续保持不变。当前马盘棕榈油期价已经触及到7月21日的前高点附近(9月高点2388 一个点也没多没少),后市短线只要期价能站稳7月21的高点之上,那马盘棕榈油的反弹走势就更为明显了,当前马棕榈油多单继续持有。

小结:美盘豆油继续不温不火的波动震荡,延续它的底部区域积蓄做多能量过程。 而马盘与内盘油脂类商品却有些许的“迫不及待”盘口语言出现,我们继续短多思维观点对待当前行情,前期新旧中短线多单继续持仓不动,耐心等待美盘豆油短线走势上的支持。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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