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Global Markets Analysis – 03 August 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


03.08.2017周四全球油脂类商品短线回落整理走势延续中

昨日周三晚间,美盘大豆美盘豆油在周二的长阴K线右下角小阳K线表现,虽然期价红盘阳K线走势,但再想收复周二阴K线下跌的失地已经是“无力回天”。只要本周二的阴K线不被吞回—–我们对美盘豆油12月合约继续以短空的回落均线疲软看待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,今天周四早盘期价低开低走,小阴K线下跌表现,其中豆油1801合约下跌幅度更为明显,我们继续保持反弹上行过后的短空观点不变。

马盘毛棕榈油基准10月,由于马来西亚方面对未来时期棕榈油产量增加担忧情绪加剧,以及国际原油前期反弹上行速率过快(当前出现回落 ),在美盘豆油内盘大商所外围周边市场油脂商品整体走低情绪带动下,马盘棕榈油10月也出现跳空下挫走势,我们对马棕榈以反弹结束后的短线下蹲整理观点对待。

小结:全球油脂类商品短线反弹上行之后的回落整理走势形成初步苗头,后市短线我们以短空观点对待——对于下方的具体回落空间我们有待继续观察,我们本波短空操作的宗旨有2点:1.为前期剩余部分空单 解套。 2.暂时短空操作一小波段,待后市期价回落下来后,时刻准备平空翻多的机会把握。也就是说我们短线角度以下挫整理观点对待,但在中长线角度继续保持看多观点,仅仅是尽量追随当前期价运行的轨迹,以一种小波段(短平快)操作模式追随市场的变化节奏。具体操作上:前期被套空单继续持有,昨日新进空单谨慎持有,关注下方空单平仓出场机会的把握。

[SUMMARY]
• With global edible oils possibly headed for a downward correction after a strong rally, we hold a short-term short outlook.
• As the market is expected to continue its uptrend in long-term, we might switch short to long when the prices are low.

[ACTION]
• Traders who are still holding short positions and who just initiate short position on Wednesday may close-out all positions when the prices are low.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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