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Global Markets Analysis – 03 December 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


03.12.2014 周三 美豆油箱体下破

美豆油1月合约,抛开国际原油下跌影响单从其本身走势分析,本周近2日美豆油短线走势出现反复,12月1日周一时候下破箱体又被收回,表明有多头主力在箱体下沿附近护盘保护,但周二时候期价再度中阴下跌击破箱体下沿,表明当前短线空头主力仍占上风。事实大于雄辩,当前美豆油短线仍要以短空看待。这其中有心理作用在作祟,我们来切身体会一下就能明白其中道理—短线角度美豆油14周来横盘平台区间整理,箱体上沿34.00;箱体下沿为32.00 箱体震荡幅度为2美元。 这14周横盘的总持仓当中,每一手多单对应一手空单,若后市行情是突破上箱体,那所有多单就成为获利者,并且能中长期持有。 但行情如果下破箱体31.80–32.00,则期间的所有多单持有就全部被套处于亏损状态,这时候接盘多单的心态是什么?肯定是担忧自己站错了队伍,而空单持有者则偷偷窃喜,这就出现了箱体下沿被击破后,多单止损盘涌出,(卖出止损出逃)空单加仓继续打压,(卖出空单进场)在这双重力量下,期价必定继续下行,这就是横盘区间箱体被击破后,市场心理因素对技术走势的影响。若箱体上沿被向上突破则上述情况恰恰相反。

从更大角度来分析美豆油,长线角度美豆油1月延续中线的下降趋势走势,目前恰好回落到原长期上升趋势线支撑位(月图),这位置大概就在30.00左右(由于画线存在些许误差1-2点),理论技术上在该位置长线角度是可以接盘多单的。这个中线的下降趋势下的回落过程仍在延续中,短线上(日图表)原横盘区间刚被下破,短线有继续下挫的要求。 也就是说长期角度看多与中线的下行、短线的下挫、三者之间的方向是相驳的,(其中短线与中线方向是相同的)这也就造成了当前油脂商品市场走势因操作周期的不同而多空分歧较大,走势较复杂的现象。个人认为现在能做的是大脑中想着长线角度的向上大方向,眼睛盯住中线下行的反方向行情,手边操作着短线即时下挫的具体走势,虽然市场是一个整体,但需要我们在思维要化为三部分,从长到短思考和从短到长操作。

小结:美盘豆油箱体下沿昨日晚间长阴下破成立,后市短线上仍有下挫要求,即便今天晚间期价反复红盘报收,期价应该不会站在32.00之上。大陆内盘与马盘油脂商品跟随美盘豆油走势,上下跳跃开盘吸收消化,盘中虽有部分多头主力进场护盘,但技术的下挫仍未完结,短线走势仍以疲软看待。下方具体的支撑位在何处尚待后市继续观察。个人观点觉得短线空单继续持有。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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