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Global Markets Analysis – 03 December 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


03.12.2015 周四 美盘豆油留上影线;内盘剧烈波动;马盘补涨

美盘豆油1月,昨日周三晚间中阳上涨,期价继续保持11月16日以来的短线反弹态势。美中不足的是昨日(第十三个交易日)盘中走势上出现长上影线,表明短线上方存在一定压力,部分多头出现逢高减仓迹象。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1605主力合约,昨日的报告中我们就提醒过,经过周二 和周三2天连续出现上影线后,今天周四盘中果然出现情绪上的波动,今天周四早盘期价出现较大的回落反复,持仓量略有减少,内盘本小波反弹是从11月20日开始的,经过10个交易的连续上涨,本身低位的短线多单持有者已经获利较丰,出现心理上的先落袋为安的盘中走势也不奇怪。基本在预料之中。

马盘毛棕榈油基准2月,本波反弹上行的幅度较小,远不够内盘上涨幅度,并且反弹上行启动时间上也比美盘与内盘要晚几天(11月25日才启动),因此当内盘今天期价剧烈波动时候,马盘棕榈今天继续高开高走红盘上涨。

小结:美盘豆油的一个上影线,让内盘油脂出现情绪波动,部分机敏的短线操作者出现逢高减持多单的行为。这基本属于正常现象,短线操作者的这种把利润先装一部分放入口袋的操作心理完全可以理解。就当前整体来说,本波的反弹上行走势并未完全技术走坏,仅仅是出现了敏感情绪(毕竟前期长期的下跌疲软对人的心理影响较大),当前在期价的快速上涨过程中,日K线图表上短期均线正上穿长期均线进行中,(后市早晚要出现;上穿之后的回抽确认均线的技术走势仅仅是有部分操作者提前对此种后市走势做了一个提前操作,较早的来规避风险,操作手法的不同),我们当前首要任务是关注本波反弹上行的高点到底在何处?在反弹上行未完全技术走坏前我们继续短多看待,但需要在心理上要较早一步做个心理准备。观点认为具体操作上:中线与长线多单继续持有。短线操作者允许敏感些,当期价不能继续发力上行时候或者出现期价急挫时候可以部分短多逢高离场,以保障账户的利润。把能赚到的与属于自己的可以先装一部分放入自己口袋。个人对此操作无异议。建议后市整体暂仍短多看待。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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