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Global Markets Analysis – 03 February 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


03.02.2016 周三 内外盘油脂商品走势分化 ;长假前夕,情绪化氛围浓厚

纽约原油从低位小幅走高反弹到上方的40天均线位置后,技术受压沉重,上涨动能有所衰竭,近2日期价又出现下挫。

美盘豆油3月合约,依旧不温不火的小幅横盘震荡,盘中的继续反弹上行动作不明显,考虑到美豆油反弹动能的不断衰竭,盘中徘徊犹豫的短线走势。建议对美豆油短线走势继续持观望态度。

大陆内盘豆油与棕榈油1605合约,期价呈阴阳K线的无序波动,而期价整体变化却不大,整体属于短线的横盘震荡走势方向性不强,在短线操作上难度较大,操作价值不高,建议短线操作者以观望心态对待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准4月,近几日短线走势异常,盘中的情绪化交易浓厚,在整体马盘基本面变化不大情况下,更多的是受马来西亚令吉特的汇率波动影响。2月1日停盘前受令吉特短线走强影响而期价大跌,2月2日开盘后又受令吉特的疲软而出现暴涨。昨天周二盘中期价高开高走,马棕榈4月长阳上涨创近2月来的最大单日涨幅。从马盘毛棕榈油基准4月的多空持仓量观察-停盘前多头主力减仓离场期价下跌,昨日开盘后多头主力又增仓上行进场,今天周三盘中,马棕榈又出现减仓上行-这是空头主力出逃动作,多空主力的持仓量的大幅异常变化是造成马棕榈期价剧烈波动的主要原因。马棕榈短线走势上一马当先出现独立的走强态势。

小结:美盘豆油走势整体波动不大方向性指引作用减弱。大陆内盘油脂商品多空主力操作谨慎呈单日的阴阳K线交错横盘波动,可操作性不强。马盘毛棕榈油多空主力持仓量异常变化,期价随之异常剧烈波动,操作难度增强。三地油脂商品短线走势上出现分化不同步现象,此情况下临近中国传统假期春节前市场情绪不稳定,建议观望为宜。个人观点认为操作上:中长线多单谨慎持有。短线操作者交易手法日内进出,短线多空单子均不持仓过夜。其中盘感不强的交易者暂时场外观望。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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