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Global Markets Analysis – 03 June 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


03.06.2016 周五 美大豆长阳飙涨期价再创新高;美豆油反抽上升趋势线

昨日周四晚间,美黄豆连再创2014年7月以来的新高点,从2015年-2016年以来筑大底之后的反转上行走势进行中,该品种中期走势与我们早先预测的基本一致。美盘豆油7月合约的反弹(反转)上行走势就比美大豆弱了许多,美豆油更多的呈现出一波三折的震荡走势,虽然期价也有小幅走高,但上涨力度就相差大豆很多。当前美豆油7月,从原先震荡盘升的通道中的下边轨滑落下来以后(我们做过这个通道的图形),在30.80一线受到新支撑后反身上行,从5月27日开始的4天中阳红盘上涨,当前期价已经反抽到原先的上升通道的下边轨位置(32.60-32.70一线),只有期价从新站在该位置之上才能重新回到原来的上升通道内,我们继续关注美盘豆油7月的后续走势,从当前上行能量观察-美豆油7月合约从新站上,上升趋势线之上的概率非常大。我们继续短多思维对待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,经过艰难的反弹上行,期价终于临近60天均线技术位置,今天周五盘中,内盘油脂商品将在这一关键位置震荡徘徊波动,我们继续短多心态密切关注内盘油脂商品的走势情况。

马盘毛棕榈油基准8月,昨日高开低走,盘中有些许回落,但在尾盘时候短线多头主力增仓发力,终盘期价以小阳K线红盘报收,期价恰好到达我们昨日提到的三个高点连线位置处(4月5日、4月21日、5月11日三个高点连线),这样说来马盘毛棕榈油也到了关键技术位,我们同样关注在此关键位置的后市表现。

小结:油脂类商品中-美盘豆油、内盘豆油与棕榈油、马盘棕榈油;三地品种的短线走势均来到了各自的关键技术位置,在关键技术位如何表现就成了后市行情发展的风向标。在当前短线的反弹走势与我们之前的预测基本相同情况下。我们现在能做的就是在上涨动能未衰竭时候,继续保持前期短多观点不变。仅仅在思维上要提前关注各自品种的后续发展情况-也就是说,脚不乱动但眼睛提前看远一些,内心里提前做个思想准备。因此观点认为操作上:多单继续持有,密切关注市场新的走势变化。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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