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Global Markets Analysis – 03 March 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


03.03.2016周四 大陆内盘棕榈油抵抗性回落整理,美盘与内盘豆油、马盘棕榈油 跌破60天均线

美盘豆油5月合约,在跌破60天均线后,期价在下方不远处小幅震荡,盘中恐慌盘不明显,“不破不立”现象能否出现就要观察随后几天的市场表现了。我们继续以短空观点关注随后几天能否止跌企稳。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1605主力合约,棕榈油仍在顽强抵抗中,期价的回落幅度较小。内盘豆油追随美盘走势,期价仍围绕60天均线附近震荡,从盘面观察:后市下方的回落空间不会很大,继续短空观点,建议谨慎看待当前市场的回落整理行情。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,在昨日盘中下破均线后,期价走弱,今天周四盘中期价继续惯性下挫,短线的回落整理行情仍在延续中。马来西亚令吉特汇率走强,出口需求疲软是对马盘棕榈油期价构成压力的主要原因。在未出现止跌企稳信号前我们继续以短空观点对待。

小结:全球油脂类商品回落整理行情延续中,在期价下破关键技术支撑位后,我们关注焦点是该下破为瞬间的假突破还是真正意义上的下破,我个人观点偏向假突破偏多一些,我们随后密切关注下破后的市场表现,建议密切关注期价下方的回落空间与回落力度是否衰竭。观点认为操作上:中长线多单继续持有,短线的空单继续持有,下方稍有异常动作发生时,可空单迅速平仓离场。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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