Share

Tweet this

Dealing Desk Hotline

(603)-2181 8848

Global Markets Analysis – 03 May 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


03.05.2016 周二 全球油脂类商品的短线调整行情延续中

伦敦5月2日消息:国际谷物理事会(IGC) 发布报告,预计2016/2017年度全球大豆产量稳定在3.19亿吨,基本上与上年度持平,但消费量将进一步提高,因而全球期末库存将减少到3200万吨。这数据要比2015/2016年度减少16%,创3年来库存最低水平。其中亚洲地区油脂消费水平将有所提高。

华盛顿5月2日消息:截止5月1日周一,前半周干燥天气有助于美国农户加快播种玉米和大豆,但后半周的降雨将导致许多农户无法下田作业。当前美国玉米播种完成了47%,高于上周的30%,也高于5年同期平均值30%。美国大豆播种进度达到8%,高于上周的3%,低于去年同期的10%,但高于5年平均值6%。

美盘油脂商品市场,豆强油弱现象依然表现较为明显。5月2日周一,美黄豆连中阳红盘上涨,期价维持在1040一线。而美盘豆油7月合约则表现为中阴下跌,期价盘中下破60天均线的技术支撑,为第9天来阴K线下挫,美豆油的短线回落整理走势延续中。但后期随着美元指数的阶段性下挫,将支撑美盘豆油的跌幅。

中国大陆国内五一假期期间,24度棕榈油各大港口交货价格小幅下跌,其中天津港 5760;跌20元、山东日照港;5900持平、江苏连云港5650;跌100元、浙江宁波港5650;跌70元、广东黄埔港5500;跌50元。全国各大港口豆油交货价格基本保持不变,平均价格维持在6200元/吨。今天5月3日周二是内盘五一假期后开盘的第一个交易日,内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约追随美盘豆油走势低开,但盘中仍有短线多头主力抵抗而表现为低开高走小阳K线,但技术上观察,内盘油脂商品的短线回落整理走势仍未完结,短线上下方还有一定回落空间。

马拉西亚棕榈油出口情况略显迟滞,棕榈油产量季节性增长以及出口表现平平给期货市场构成一定压力。马拉西亚棕榈油3月装船期FOB报价为-24度棕榈油精炼705美元/吨、33度精炼695、44度精炼640美元/吨。马拉西亚因公共假期也有停盘,今天周二(5月3日)首次开盘后低开低走,期价下坠感明显,短线的回落整理走势清晰,继续短空观点对待。

小结:全球油脂类商品期价普遍走低,交易者情绪上分歧严重,短线回落整理的看跌与中长线的筑大底后的看涨-两种情绪纠结在一起,整体市场投资人心态不稳,观望情绪较浓;交投不活跃,我们要理性看待这一现象,前期我们建议的逢高平仓离场多单的操作者继续保持短线的场外观望,其中耐不住寂寞的短线交易者可今日内短空交易,但不建议持空单过夜。下方回落空间有但个人认为不会很大。耐心等待本波短线下挫调整结束后的新操作建议。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email
 

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






Share and Enjoy:
[del.icio.us] [Digg] [Facebook] [Google] [Mixx] [MySpace] [Twitter] [Windows Live] [Yahoo!] [Email]

Post a Comment

Displayed next to your comments.

Not displayed publicly

If you have a website, link ti it here

PLEASE NOTE:

OPF reserves the right to delete comments that are snarky, offensive, or off-topic. If in doubt, read our Comments Policy.


SiteLock