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Global Markets Analysis – 03 November 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


03.11.2016 周四 油脂类商品盘中有部分多头主力抵抗;但不改短线的回落整理态势

昨日周三晚间,美盘豆油12月合约小阳十字星收盘,期价暂时稳定在20天均线附近,但短线的下挫整理技术要求还依然存在,仅仅一天的红盘表现不足说明回落整理已经结束,我们继续以反弹冲高之后的下坠回落整理观点对待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约,本周4个交易日以来连续四连阴, 期价也呈下坠整理走势,盘中丝毫未见止跌迹象,继续以下挫的回抽均线整理观点对待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,昨日周三盘中,期价低开高走,终盘以中阳K线红盘报收,虽然昨日马棕榈期价出现红盘上涨,但期价仍处于周二的阴K线之下,仅仅表明马盘棕榈昨日盘中有部分多头主力进场护盘,但护盘效果还不足以止住下挫的步伐(昨日阳K线 只上涨到前日阴K线一半位置;力度不够),我们继续以回落整理的短空思维对待。

小结:全球油脂商品短线下挫整理走势延续中,盘中虽然出现部分多头主力护盘,但不足以止住回落整理的下挫走势,仅仅在下方回落空间上拉小了一段距离(正好符合我们的下方回落空间不会很大的预期)。观点认为具体操作上:我们继续保持昨日的观点-稳健交易者观望,激进交易者可少量短空,依旧建议日内平仓了结, 不支持持仓过夜。

[SUMMARY]
• Despite signs of a considerable amount of long interest, they are not sufficiently strong to resist the downtrend correction global edible oils are experiencing at the moment.
• Nonetheless, the extent of the correction has narrowed, which is consistent with our expectation.

[ACTION]
• We shall maintain our outlook from yesterday.
• Passive traders may remain uncommitted to any position and observe the market from the sidelines.
• Aggressive traders may initiate and close-out small amounts of short positions on an intraday-basis, or avoid holding positions overnight.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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