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Global Markets Analysis – 04 August 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


04.08.2017周五耐心等待下周空单平仓离场机会的出现

美国大豆主产区本周迎来降雨,这将有利于大豆作物的生长。美盘黄豆连近期期价大跌,周跌幅创2016年7月以来的最大跌幅。美盘豆油12月合约,昨日周四晚间继续长阴K线下跌表现,美盘油脂商品短线下挫回落整理走势延续中。我们继续短空观点对待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,紧紧追随美盘豆油下挫走势,昨日盘中阴K线下跌,其中豆油1801合约跌幅大于内盘棕榈油跌幅。单从内盘豆油来说——–前期内盘豆油空单持有者已经完全解套(空单已经盈利)。

马来西亚棕榈油局将于下周公布发布马棕榈油7月份的产量以及出口量 库存量详细数据。对马盘毛棕榈油基准10月来说,3浪反弹上行之后的回落整理仍延续中,虽然本周跌幅仅仅跌倒下方20天均线位置,但下挫整理态势仍延续中,我们下周仍保持短空思维对待。

小结:全球油脂类商品短线回落行情延续中,任何的盘中小阳K线表现,仅仅是下挫整理阶段的(中继过程),这并不影响我们对后市短线走势看法。今天周末,油脂类商品基本面情况消息匮乏,市场成交清淡,虽然盘中有部分多头主力进行护盘,但不改下挫整理走势,我们继续以短空观点对待。操作上:前期被套空单继续持有,新进空单乐观持有,散户朋友等待下周回落到下方某均线位置时候寻找空单盈利平仓离场机会的把握。

[SUMMARY]
• Downtrend of global edible oils continues, as a downward correction is in progress.
• Trading is light in edible oil markets going into the weekend.
• Although the market is supported by long interest, the downward correction is unlikely to be affected.
• Our short-term short outlook remains.

[ACTION]
• Traders may continue holding or initiate short positions.
• Retail traders may seek opportunities next week to take profit on short positions.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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