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Global Markets Analysis – 04 December 2014

A commentary written by Tony Tong


04.12.2014 周四 期价反复;盘中出现回抽确认动作

美盘豆油1月,昨日晚间果然红盘上涨至31.90收盘,期价下破箱体后进行了一个反抽确认动作,下箱体部位的多空争夺完全可以理解,表明多空主力对后市的看法分歧依然较大。个人觉得短线观点依然不变,期价没有站到箱体内仍以短空看待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1505主力合约,下破前期低点后创出新低,短线的疲软态势明显,在全球恐慌情绪未完全消除前,期价未出现明显止跌前,短线看空观点不变。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月合约,走势明显区别于大陆内盘油脂,期价从60天线跌落下来后,本应该属于下滑走势,但昨日大幅度跳空低开后,在前期低点10月16日2104处受到支撑,盘中出现低开高走现象,并且上行幅度出乎意料,终盘以长阳K线收盘。但期价仍受阻于日图表的60天线2195位置(美盘豆油受阻于箱体下沿32.00位置)。马盘的多头护盘现象其实也可以理解,由于前期从9月份开始马盘走势就与内盘和美盘略有不同,日图表上马盘毛棕榈油1月是波峰波谷依次上行的反弹行情,本次的回落到前波谷(10月16日)低点处出现挣扎也是可以理解,短线上密切关注该品种2个位置,站上60天看多下破10.16日低点看空,二者之间的震荡则空单持仓不动。

小结:油脂类商品长线看多、中线下行、短线下挫寻支撑观点继续不变,由于周期方向相驳,盘中期价出现反复不足为奇,属于多空主力由于操作周期层次的不同存在分歧属于正常。后市短线上继续看淡,继续观察下方下蹲空间到底有多大。个人观点认为长线单子观望不急进场,短线空单仍继续持有。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 





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