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Global Markets Analysis – 04 December 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


04.12.2015 周五 欧元兑美元疯涨 美元指数长阴暴跌

北京时间周四晚间,欧洲央行宣布降低存款利率10个基点,并延长QE到2017年3月或更长,不及市场对宽松货币政策的预期,在巨量欧元兑美元的空单持有者的大幅减仓出局操作影响下,欧元兑美元大幅长阳飙涨,英镑兑美元也被提振上涨,而欧洲各大股票市场则全线下滑。同时美元指数跷跷板作用影响下则出现大跌,从100.50一线狂泻到98.00左右。一根长阴K线把多日以来的小阳K线吞没,美元指数的下挫回落整理行情拉开序幕。

美元指数的下跌,令全球大宗商品市场的压力骤减。昨日周四晚间,美黄金、美原油均红盘上涨,一改前期颓废走势。而美盘豆油昨日周四晚间也同样红盘上涨报收。其中美豆油1月合约,继续延续前期的反弹上行走势,均线系统上穿之后的多头排列演绎中。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1605合约,今天周五上午盘十字星表现,期价反弹到上方一定高度后,已经连续3日期价呈现上行动能减弱迹象,虽然纯技术走坏态势并未发生,但短线角度的心理警惕仍是必须的。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,昨日周四盘中红盘小阳上涨收盘。今天周五早盘继续在昨日高点附近震荡运行,短线的反弹上行走势良好,未出现明显变盘迹象。

小结:全球油脂类商品的短线反弹上行态势基本良好,尚未出现任何变盘迹象。个人短线角度继续短多观点对待。观点认为具体操作上:中长线多单持有者继续持仓不动。其中大陆内盘短线交易者心理因素上要提高一下警惕,需要稍微敏感一些,任何的风吹草动之前可适当逢高减持部分多单。我们对这一操作策略以及操作手法仍保持不变。静观下周市场变化。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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