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Global Markets Analysis – 04 February 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


04.02.2015 周三 接盘试仓多单谨慎持有

前期我们提到,油脂类商品下挫极限位是5-7连阴,其中美盘豆油3月略微超乎想象多下跌一天为8连阴,见低点29.32。大陆内盘豆油1505下挫恰好为7连阴, 创低点5308。棕榈油1505合约为6连阴创低点4610元/吨。这几个品种在最后一根阴K线上均带下影线。并且美豆油正好是接近30.00位置。这个位置更是我们早几月前就预期的多单接盘位置。在上周我们连续建议短线锁单空单逢低平仓出局。 本周来三个交易日三天红盘报收错列上行,重心低点不同程度的有所抬升,短线上的超跌后拐点迹象出现苗头,目前上方虽然存在均线的层层压制,但超跌后的技术反弹仍是我们短线上对后市的观点,唯一值得我们注意的是,在反弹上行过程中成交量是否得以配合,建议后市密切关注油脂商品的反弹力度。

国际原油近几日也出现了触底反弹上行,其中美原油连续,短线走势较为明显,本周初开始不经意间已经从低位瞬间反弹到52.50一线,前期我们对美原油的观点也较为明确,50.00美元即为该品种的价值中枢底线位,可以瞬间下破但只要很快收回50.00一线,均为正常的下探急挫探底整理,逢低接盘多单为可行性计划,中线角度反弹上行到60-80美元可以预期。

我们再来观察一下美元指数,再美原油下跌出现低背离技术雏形时候,美元指数在前期连续冲高上行之后,同样出现了技术上顶背离现象,昨日晚间的中阴K线下跌,已经宣布短线上的回落整理拉开序幕,短线上我们对美元指数保持回落整理观点。

在美元指数短线回落时候,外汇市场上:欧元/英镑反身上行,同样从另一个侧面验证我们对美元指数后市走势的判断。

马盘毛棕榈油基准4月,前几日无交易,今天周三早盘跳空高开,脱离下方低点 (前低再被下破的可能减弱),目前虽盘中高开低走呈小阴K线,但不影响整体油脂商品反弹上行的技术要求。

小结:油脂类商品连续阴K下跌下探寻底后,技术上超卖现象严重,本周来已经连续三连阳反弹,期间的技术拐点出现苗头,后市只要在反弹过程中成交量能有效放大,则上方反弹空间值得期待,后市短线角度密切关注反弹力度以及反弹空间是否能有效被打开,空头排列的层层均线压制作用仍不可小视。个人觉得短线以反弹观点看待。观点认为激进操作者在对应美豆油30.00一线下方接盘;内盘与马盘油脂商品多单谨慎持有,目前暂不加仓。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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