Share

Tweet this

Dealing Desk Hotline

(603)-2181 8848

Global Markets Analysis – 04 February 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


04.02.2016 周四 美元指数暴跌;国际大宗商品下行压力骤减

昨天周三晚间美元指数长阴K线下跌,短线的冲高回落走势明显。国际黄金为代表的大宗商品延续前期的反弹上行走势。有色金属中的铜与锌的下行压力减轻,特别是伦敦锌短线反弹上行延续中。美盘原油连在连续2跟阴K线下跌之后,昨日晚间又中阳红盘上涨。国际外汇市场,由于美元的短线走弱,在跷跷板作用下欧元兑美元和英镑兑美元则出现长阳暴涨。美元指数的短线下跌,令以美黄金与美原油为代表的大宗商品下行压力骤减。

美盘豆油3月合约,昨日晚间走势平平,继续延续前期小幅反弹之后的不温不火的横盘震荡走势,期价依旧在31.00一线徘徊震荡波动。短线的走势模糊。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1605主力合约,追随美盘豆油走势也呈现阴阳K线的横盘震荡模式,整体期价变化不大,成交量萎缩,内盘油脂商品市场上的观望气氛较浓,惨淡的成交下交投不旺,操作价值不高,建议内盘油脂商品短线观望为宜。

马盘毛棕榈油基准4月,2号开盘多头主力疯狂增仓进场长阳拉伸之后,昨日3号盘中又继续中阳上涨,短线的强势特征强于美盘与内盘。再次呈现出一马当先鹤立鸡群的独立特征走势。这与马来西亚令吉特汇率走软以及对马来西亚棕榈油未来产量下降心理预期分不开。马棕榈当前处于季节性减产周期下,厄尔尼诺现象的不利影响在公布的棕榈产量数据上得到一定体现。在潜在利多情绪带动下,马盘毛棕榈油基准4月短线走高欲望强烈,短多思维对待,但仅仅日内操作,不建议短线交易者持仓过夜。

小结:美盘与大陆内盘油脂商品短线走势依旧不温不火,可操作性不强。马盘毛棕榈油短线拉升上涨明显,三地油脂商品走势上强弱不一,宜分别对待思路模式操作。个人观点认为具体操作上:临近内盘春节长假,内盘短线交易者减少交易,尽量日内操作。中长线多单持有者可适量在节前逢高部分减仓,以规避未来长假期带来的不确定性系统风险。(内盘明天2月5日最后一个交易日;2月15日初八才开盘交易,大概停盘10天)。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email
 

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






Share and Enjoy:
[del.icio.us] [Digg] [Facebook] [Google] [Mixx] [MySpace] [Twitter] [Windows Live] [Yahoo!] [Email]

Post a Comment

Displayed next to your comments.

Not displayed publicly

If you have a website, link ti it here

PLEASE NOTE:

OPF reserves the right to delete comments that are snarky, offensive, or off-topic. If in doubt, read our Comments Policy.


SiteLock