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Global Markets Analysis – 04 January 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


04.01.2016 周三 继续关注美盘豆油的后续走势

纽约原油昨日晚间出现中阴下跌,前期连续的反弹上行之后“冲高回落”短线走势较为明显。美盘豆油3月合约依然处于回落整理的关键技术部位波动震荡,虽然盘中未曾出现大的下跌,但也未出现明显的反身上行,美豆油在下方上升趋势线位置延续震荡走势。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油 1705主力合约,在缺少美盘方向性指引走势下,盘面上多空主力情绪化波动较明显,在始终得不到美盘支持作用下,在昨日红盘上涨之后,今天周三盘面又以中阴下跌走势表现,表明多空双方对内盘后市走势分歧较大。

国家粮油信息中心1月4日消息:受厄尔尼诺天气影响,目前马来西亚棕榈油产量进入减产周期,预计12月份棕榈油产量为146万吨,降幅为7%左右,预计12月份棕榈油出口量为133万吨左右,12月份棕榈油库存为164万吨左右,较上月同期的165.6万吨库存小幅减少0.9%,较去年同期的263万吨减少37.6%。受棕榈油库存下降到历史低位数字利多情绪影响,马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,期价继续在高位区域波动震荡徘徊,并未出现明显走软迹象。

小结:美盘豆油日K线图表上,期价回落整理到低位区域后波动徘徊,短线走势无新意。马盘棕榈油主产国卖盘压力不大,内盘情绪化随机波动情绪较浓-当前全球油脂类商品仍处于产量与消费的博弈情绪当中,基本面上2017年第一季度的前半阶段期价上行压力不大(第二季度也许会存在期价回落压力),整体上来说,我们继续保持谨慎的短多思维(特别是马盘棕榈油盘面上给予我们了更多一些信心)。个人观点认为操作上:前期多单继续持有, 继续关注美盘豆油的后续走势。

[SUMMARY]
• Technical analysis indicates that the short-term movement of US soybean oil remains indecisive, after falling to low levels following the downward correction.
• Selling pressure on Malaysia palm oil remains weak, while China edible oils face strong sentiment in following trend.
• At the moment, global edible oil markets juggle between production and consumption activities.
• In view of potentially weaker upward pressure in the first quarter of 2017 and the possibility of a downward correction in the second quarter, we cautiously maintain short-term long position outlook.

[ACTION]
• Traders may maintain existing long position, while closely observing the performance of US soybean oil.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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