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Global Markets Analysis – 04 March 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


04.03.2016 周五 剩余空单离场;反手短线多单跟进;油脂类商品出现止跌企稳异动情况

美盘豆油5月合约,昨日周四晚间红盘上涨,小阳K线报收,期价虽然还在60天均线下方运行,但短线的回落空间被封杀。今天周五亚洲电子盘又继续红盘表现,错列的阳K线上行走势出现苗头,不排除下破60天均线的动作为假动作,建议等待美盘今日晚间的指引。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1605主力合约,昨天小阳K线探底后,今天早盘跳空高开高走,错列的2跟阳K线已经形成。特别是内盘棕榈油1605合约,前期在回落整理时候就下挫幅度较小(远未到下方60天均线位置),今天盘中又高开高走并且挑战前高的欲望较强,盘中率先出现走强迹象。豆油1605合约在周三盘中中阴下跌下破60天均线后仅昨日周四盘中期价运行在60天均线下方,今天早盘的跳空高开,期价又回到60天均线上方,反思维,短多观点对待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,昨日低开下探终盘以带下影线的小阳K线收盘,今天早盘又跳空高开红盘表现,瞬间的下破“空头陷阱”迹象明显。我们前几日就一直提到,整体油脂商品的回落整理空间不会很大,并且不排除为假突破60天均线,此刻看来,我们的预测恐将成为现实。还好我们在操作上已经连续2天提到:当盘中出现急挫可短线空单逢低平仓离场,甚至出现盘中异动也要空单减仓。当前马棕榈期价又回到60天均线位置,后市若站稳60天均线之上。则以短多观点对待。

小结:油脂类商品在回落整理时候,我们的思维就是下方回落空间不会很大,以短暂的短线角度下挫短空观点对待。并且提醒散户朋友时刻注意短线空单逐步逢低平仓离场,相信到今天短线空单持仓已经不多,从今天周五盘中的异常盘面表现来看,短线的回落整理悄然出现结束信号,从今天开始我们思维上从短空观点转为短多观点。个人观点认为具体操作上:短线激进交易者手中剩余空单全部平仓离场,反手逢低多单跟进。而中长线长周期交易者原多单继续持有,后市油脂商品有走高苗头。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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