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Global Markets Analysis – 04 May 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


04.05.2016 周三 油脂类商品的短线回落整理接近尾声阶段

美盘豆油7月合约,从4月21日冲高回落后截止到今天已经下挫整理第十个交易日,从调整幅度以及调整时间上来说,本波回落整理接近下方上升趋势线位置(2015年11月16日以来的上升通道内),技术上观察,短线的回落整理逐步靠近尾声阶段,下方还有些许空间,但空间已经不大(极限位置31.90一线)我们思维上提前做好准备,准备迎接下一波的短线操作策略。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,抵抗性回落整理追随美盘豆油运行,但回落空间小于美盘,其中内盘豆油当前下挫到40天均线处,棕榈油下挫到下方的60天均线处,回抽均线的短线运行轨迹进行中,我们谨慎态度对待五一节后的市场表现,暂且以短线观望为宜。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,期价下挫幅度较大,调整较为充分。当前期价已经回落到60天均线的下方,今天周三盘中低开高走,形成了盘中的阳包阴K线组合,短线走势上也要保持谨慎心态对待,耐心等待下方的维稳局面出现。

小结:全球油脂类商品短线的回落整理进行中,但部分商品已经出现下方存在支撑情况,我们在短线看空观点保持不变前提下,思维上要提前保持一下谨慎,待下方真正出现止跌企稳时候,可多单逢低进场操作,当前短线可继续保持场外观望心态,同时密切关注美盘豆油的后市短线走势指引。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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