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Global Markets Analysis – 04 May 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


04.05.2017 周四 国内油脂类商品现货市场平稳 期货市场交投清淡

美盘豆油7月合约期价波动幅度不大,继续在60天均线下方附近积蓄能量——虽然当前期价短暂突破原横盘整理区间的上沿(32.20 第一技术压力位),但仍需期价站于60天均线上方,则原先空头排列的均线系统才有形成“金叉”向上的反弹趋势(短期均线上穿长期均线),我们继续关注美豆油在60天均线位置的表现。

中国大陆方面:当前国内各港口豆油现货价格基本平稳—–天津港报价6180元/吨,山东青岛港报价6150元/吨,江苏 张家港报价6150元/吨,上海港6150元/吨,浙江宁波港6150元/吨,广东黄埔港6100元/吨。由于当前棕榈油到港量与需求量基本持平,令国内各港口棕榈油库存也基本保持平稳,4月份库存总量大约为59.5万吨,3月份库存为58万吨左右。后期国内棕榈油将继续维持在60万吨上下。今日内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,在美豆油7月期价测试挑战上方60天均线位置的压力效果未明朗之前,内盘油脂商品窄幅波动震荡,上午盘中一度走低,后在多头主力抵抗下收带下影线的小阴K线。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,同样受美盘内盘油脂商品走势影响,在昨日周三阴K线收盘后,今天周四上午小阳K线表现,均在等待美盘豆油短线走势的指引。

小结:美盘豆油短线走势临近关键时刻—-前期中线角度的回落整理走势中,期价均在空头排列的均线系统下方运行,当前期价短线反弹到均线系统上方的60天均线位置,该位置存在一定技术压力,在美盘未明朗前(是否站上去),内盘马盘油脂商品短线技术走势呈现出窄幅波动震荡—-等待美盘豆油给出短线走势指引。操作上:在未出现低位反弹向上变盘信号前,继续多单持有,关注美盘豆油技术压力位的表现。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean’s short-term trend comes to a critical point.
• After trading below the moving average following the downward correction, US soybean oil rebounded to trade above the 60-day moving average but faces technical resistance.
• Before US soybean oil shows clear signals, China and Malaysia edible oils continue to trade in a tight range.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain long position as we await a rebound signal.
• In the meantime, we shall pay close attention to the technical resistance on US soybean oil.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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