Share

Tweet this

Dealing Desk Hotline

(603)-2181 8848

Global Markets Analysis – 05 April 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


05.04.2016 周二 内盘开盘;油脂类商品整体呈高位震荡反复走势

4月4日周一,美盘豆油5月合约小阳K先表现,期价仍在较高位置运行,盘中受美国农业部最新公布的大豆种植面积减少的利多情绪带动,期价短线拒绝回调,盘面上的技术超买含义更加明显,高位出现“钝化”现象-该现象早晚要破灭,仅仅在短线多头主力的不甘心情绪下,期价在努力延续前期的反弹上行走势,至于能维持多久依旧是我们后市短线所关注的焦点。

美盘原油市场走势符合我们前期的预期走势,(美豆油短线走势未与之同步)期价呈反弹上行之后的正常回落整理走势,纽约原油回落均线,确认走势延续中。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,昨天因公共假期而停盘一天。在假期前的上周五,内盘豆油出现情绪波动而异动-长阳红盘报收,而内盘棕榈油还较为理智,仅仅小阳红盘表现。今天周二盘中,内盘豆油与棕榈油均高位窄幅波动,虽大幅上涨动力不足,但就此回落整理又不甘心-是此刻内盘多头主力的内心语言,在我们中长线看多观点不变情况下,短线角度的回落整理预期被延迟,后市继续关注美盘豆油的具体走势对内盘的影响。

马盘毛棕榈油基准6月,在上周三、周四、周五连续3天阴K线表现后,短线的空头主力始终未把期价打压下来,短线的回落整理未得以实现。再受美盘与内盘油脂商品走强带动下,本周一与周二又再度红盘表现,盘中的多头争夺较为激烈,期价短线走势呈现6天来的横盘整理状态,我们早早就曾建议在未来5-6天内,短线多单逢高减仓以规避期价回落而带来的风险,截止目前期价始终不肯回落下来,但我们短线多单既然已经出场,就不再高位追进了。场外观望一下短线后市也为明智。

小结:美原油与美豆油短线走势出现分化,内盘、马盘、油脂商品受美盘豆油短线利多情绪影响,期价或走高 或高位横盘,我们预期的回落整理行情尚不能正常进行,当前短线的多头主力心有不甘,不排除期价再创下新高,但我们不再建议高位追多,有时候市场非常情绪化时候,我们场外观望也是明智之举,不争一半日的输赢,静观市场随后表现。观点认为操作上:仅长线交易者手中的部分多单持有,其余操作者均场外观望。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email
 

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






Share and Enjoy:
[del.icio.us] [Digg] [Facebook] [Google] [Mixx] [MySpace] [Twitter] [Windows Live] [Yahoo!] [Email]

Post a Comment

Displayed next to your comments.

Not displayed publicly

If you have a website, link ti it here

PLEASE NOTE:

OPF reserves the right to delete comments that are snarky, offensive, or off-topic. If in doubt, read our Comments Policy.


SiteLock