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Global Markets Analysis – 05 April 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


05.04.2017 周三 后期油脂类商品操作重点将转移到“天气炒作”上来 后市短线空单开始逐步减仓

美国农业部(USDA)3月31日上周五发布报告:2017年度美国大豆播种面积意向报告显示将达到创纪录的8950万英亩,高于市场分析师所预测的8810万英亩。而季度库存报告显示:截止3月1日美国大豆库存为17.35亿蒲式耳,较去年同期高出13%,也高于行业分析师所预估的17亿蒲式耳。当前基本面基本明朗后(利空 双双超预期 ),美国农业部的利空情绪影响暂告一段落,后市市场将逐步将关注焦点转移到天气炒作上来。美盘豆油5月合约期价继续下挫,但短线跌幅收窄,当前期价维持在31.50一线。

大陆内盘由于国内传统假期“清明节”而停盘,今日周三才开盘。内盘豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,今天早盘期价跳空低开高走,正追随美盘油脂商品下挫消化美国农业部的利空消息影响。从今天内盘短线走势观察,低位的小阳K线增仓上行—表明有部分多头主力接仓护盘,我们散户朋友部分空单可逢低逐步减仓操作。

马盘毛棕榈油基准6月,在内盘停盘期间,马棕榈油期价小幅波动震荡,下挫幅度收窄,整体盘面上变化不大。马来西亚船运调查机构ITS3月31日公布的数据显示:马来西亚3月份棕榈油出口量为1,076,240吨,较2月份出口量增加6.8%。产量方面—-马来西亚棕榈油局(MPOB)的数据显示:马来西亚棕榈油2月份产量环比下降1.4%(3月份产量将在4月10号公布)。对马盘棕榈油来说—-期价拒绝下跌,短线交易者可开始考虑空单逐步减仓操作。

小结:全球油脂类商品短线呈现下挫态势延续中,虽然尚无美盘豆油明确的止跌信号—-但考虑到“利空出尽既是利多”的“反思维理念”,以及国际原油短线出现走强提振,恐后市油脂商品出现超跌之后的报复动作,因此上我们在保持短空思维观点同时,也要保持一份在具体操作上的谨慎。具体操作上:利空出现该跌不跌—–前期空单开始减持,谨防超跌之后的反弹发生。

[SUMMARY]
• Global edible oils continue to decline, with no US soybean technical signals indicating otherwise.
• With crude oil staging a rebound, edible oils may follow suit.
• Therefore, we cautiously hold a short-term short outlook.

[ACTION]
• Traders may reduce short positions, in anticipation of a potential rebound.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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