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Global Markets Analysis – 05 August 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


05.08.2016 周五 国际原油与美盘黄豆连超跌之后出现止跌企稳信号

纽约原油期货市场,从6月9日以来的短线回落整理出现超跌之后的止跌企稳迹象,后市短线存在技术反弹要求。美盘豆油12月合约本周5个交易日期价震荡徘徊,虽然期价上涨幅度不大,但已经显现反弹上行苗头。美盘大豆自从6月13日开始的回落整理下挫之后,昨日晚间出步显现止跌迹象,这同样给美盘豆油带来一定的心理上支持。

大陆内盘油脂类商品豆油与棕榈油1701主力合约(2017年1月份到期实物交割),本周豆油与棕榈油期价震荡走高,棕榈油上涨幅度要大于豆油,内盘棕榈强与豆油弱局面比较明显,今天周五盘面上期价出现小幅回落日内整理的阴K线,期价回落幅度不会太大,不影响短线的反弹上行态势,我们没必要过于担忧,继续保持短多观点,多单继续持有。

马盘毛棕榈油基准10月,由于棕榈油后期需求的改善以及马来西亚令吉特走软,均对马盘棕榈油走高有利多影响,中国棕榈油28万吨极低的商业库存不可能一直这样维持下去,后期商业进口将会变得更为积极。马盘毛棕榈油10月本周期价大幅走高,涨幅居于榜首(8月3日创出10个月以来的最大单日涨幅),在快速拉升之后,今日周五盘面出现小阴K线整理,这属于正常行情走势,继续以短多思维对待。

小结:美盘原油市场与美盘大豆短线止跌企稳信号出现,这将对油脂类商品有利多提振影响,我们继续保持油脂商品短线反弹上行观点不变。观点认为操作上:前期新老多单继续持仓不动,继续关注美盘豆油人气聚集之后的市场表现。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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