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Global Markets Analysis – 05 December 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


05.12.2016 周一 意大利修宪公投惨败;牵动全球金融市场神经

意大利总理伦齐(Matteo Renzi)周一(12月5日)在罗马宣布辞职,此前他在以政治生涯押注的修宪公投中遭遇惨败。虽然本次意大利全民修宪公投不是直接决定是否脱离欧盟的最终结果。但在今年6月份时候英国公投脱欧之后,再度引发欧盟地区焦虑情绪,以致影响到全球投资人士的普遍担忧-意大利公投失败会造成政局和政策不稳,为经济金融带来众多不明朗因素,加剧市场波动。受此消息影响,欧元大幅下跌避险,美元指数再度受到追捧。全球外汇市场首先巨幅震荡.

美盘植物油市场暂时尚未被完全波及到,美盘豆油1月合约期价依旧在高位窄幅波动,虽然存在上攻动能衰竭迹象,但短线的反弹上行态势还在延续中,在未出现明显变盘信号之前, 我们谨慎中保持短多思维。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油 1705主力合约,近期短线走势呈现高位横盘震荡状态,期价仍在较高位置上下波动,盘中未出现明显的上涨或者变盘下跌,我们警惕心态对待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准2月,追随外围周边市场波动走势,期价依托5日均线震荡走高, 盘中成交量略有萎缩,市场观望情绪较浓,在这种谨慎的”欲涨还跌;欲跌还涨”的市场表现下-我们散户朋友更需要保持一种警惕心态,密切关注周边市场新的动态走势。

小结:英国公投脱欧、美国大选、意大利修宪公投-今年多事之秋。全球金融市场受政治因素影响严重,市场不确定因素大增。对于我们较为关心的油脂类商品来说, 虽然油脂类商品受政治因素影响有限(远不如外汇市场与贵金属黄金市场那么波动剧烈),但我们无论从技术层面还是基本面层面还是要保持一份警惕心态(今天周一早盘,中国股票市场突然就跳空低开掉了下来)。单从油脂类商品高位的横盘震荡-这一盘口语言,就足以引起我们的警惕(谨防突然的冲高回落情况的发生)-虽然截止到现在,美盘豆油反弹上行走势尚未发生改变,但我们操作逐渐趋于谨慎。具体操作上:以多单减仓完毕的散户朋友场外观望,未减仓完毕的朋友可继续逢高派发多单,建议暂时兑现利润出局,以规避这种反弹上行之后的高位横盘状态所带来的不确定性。

[SUMMARY]
• Global financial markets have been hit by uncertainties caused by political events, with the Italian referendum added to the list alongside Brexit and Trump’s election win.
• Although political factors have less of an impact on edibles than on currency and gold markets, we should maintain a high level of caution from both the fundamental and technical standpoint.
• The dramatic drop at the open of China equity markets this Monday morning serves as a reminder that the same might happen to edible oils.

[ACTION]
• Retail traders who have closed-out long positions may remain uncommitted.
• Retail traders who have not closed-out positions may do so and take profit, to avoid taking on risk in a market filled with uncertainty.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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