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Global Markets Analysis – 05 February 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


05.02.2016 周五 内盘马盘传统假期临近 考虑到系统风险的不确定性 中长短各周期交易者建议均减仓操作

美元指数的长阴暴跌加速,贵金属美黄金连反弹上行随之加速,同时带动有色金属板块发力上行。外汇市场也波动剧烈。美原油连略微表现不明显。橡胶化工类商品走势也相对平淡。而我们较关心的美盘豆油3月合约,昨日周四晚间在其他大宗商品的多头氛围影响下,中阳红盘上涨,而美盘黄豆连则表现相对平平。

大陆内盘油脂商品 – 豆油和棕榈油1605主力合约,今天周五早盘随美盘豆油的短线走高也中阳上涨,内盘传统长假期临近,建议减少操作。

马盘毛棕榈油基准4月,在前几日利多情绪影响下率先长阳红盘上涨,今天周五盘中持仓量大幅减少,多空主力减仓迹象明显。短线的强势特征强于美盘和内盘,但由于马盘同样存在公共假期而停盘,建议操作上多单逢高适量减持。

小结:今天是传统公共假期“春节”前最后一个交易日,考虑到内盘 和马盘未来因停盘系统性风险将增强。假期间美盘会继续单独运行交易,后市短线走势上的不确定性概率大增。当前规避因假期造成的系统性风险则成为首要任务,根据多年的操作习惯,我们建议中长短线各个周期的交易者均减仓操作,特别是短线激进型交易者要全部平仓了结,操作思维模式上“保本大于盈利”,以轻松心态过节,此时此刻场外观望为上策。待假期过后,行情较为明朗后再进场操作,行情年年有,不急于一时。

补充:传统节日“春节”将至,遥祝大家身体健康、青春永驻、大吉大利、合家美满幸福、春节欢乐、万事如意!!!

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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