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Global Markets Analysis – 05 January 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


5.1.2016 周二 中国股市首个交易日“熔断机制”引发踩踏事件

昨天1月4日周一是全球金融市场2016年第一个交易日,中国股市的“熔断机制”新政第一次实施-1月4日下午13点13分,沪深300指数跌幅超5%,触发第一次熔断,停盘15分钟。13点28分恢复交易,13点35分跌7%,触发二次熔断,造成两市直接停止交易直至收盘,再现千股跌停奇观。事后分析在跌幅超过5%时候的宝贵15分钟内,监管部门的不作为(无经验),未找出市场恐慌的原因,也未第一时间站出来给投资大众澄清。造成后面的更为极端的恐慌,发生了踩踏事件。造成提前90分钟股票市场提前收盘的严重事件。中国股票市场昨天的表现还严重影响到全球证券市场。恒生指数、标普500、道琼斯、纳斯达克、日经指数。几乎全球股票市场均宣告下跌,2016年的第一个交易日全球股市遭受蒙头一棍。

期货市场大宗商品也被恐慌情绪涉及,昨天我们在上午盘中第一时间就提醒过保持警惕。昨日大宗商品中除贵金属白银与黄金因避险对冲功能出现红盘上涨外,其余大宗商品均以阴K线不同程度出现下跌。我们关心的油脂类商品也不列外,美盘大豆与豆油昨日晚间阴K线下跌,其中美盘豆油3月合约,低开低走期价走软,期价存在挑战下方60天均线支撑的技术要求,短线转空。

大陆内盘油脂类商品豆油与棕榈油1605主力合约,昨天上午盘中率先走软,冲高回落走势较为明显,虽然盘中有些许抵抗,但盘中减仓下行走势-明显的表现为多头主力出逃迹象,这令我们短线交易者散户朋友不得不引起警惕,为保持节奏上的一致性,也只好逢高平仓出局,短线走势不排除出现变盘迹象。

马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,昨天周一开盘后走势与大陆内盘相似,也为低开低走, 盘中也出现期价下行持仓量减少-短多出逃迹象。希望昨日短多出逃的短多交易者中有我们散户朋友。其实在更早一天的12月31日,我们就建议稳健的短线交易者可适当逢高减仓以规避元旦假期的不确定风险。今天周二截止到目前,连续3天的阴K线表现,表明短线走势转为看淡。

小结:全球油脂类商品行情短线出现走软,我们散户朋友的操作理念依旧保持为-保本大于盈利,安全始终放在第一位。昨天全球金融市场的震荡波及到油脂类商品,今天周二盘中虽然有些许抵抗盘出现,但短线角度的走势已经引起了我们的防备。虽然说大陆内盘油脂类商品在中国传统节日前的提前备货与消费增加前提,后市短线期价下滑应该不会很大,但我们依旧跟进市场盘中表现第一时间在操作上做出一定的调整,以规避市场给我们带来的不利影响。观点认为具体操作上: 长线多单持仓不动。中线多单保持十分的谨慎态度。短线多单全部平仓出局后,暂时场外观望一下。等待市场给出更明确的信号。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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