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Global Markets Analysis – 05 July 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


05.07.2016 周二 大陆内盘油脂商品飙涨过后出现大幅剧烈波动

美国方面由于公共假期昨日停盘一天,等待今天开盘后美豆油的具体表现。

中国金融市场方面,由于近期人民币贬值,输入性通胀有所抬头,在资金流动性充溢背景下,大陆内盘期货市场整体商品均出现不同程度上涨-农产品成为领头羊, 其中白糖、棉花、菜粕、豆粕均创出年内新高,表现最为抢眼。而贵金属黄金白银 以及有色金属如铜、锌在英国脱欧事件发生后,在资金避险情绪影响下也出现了不同程度的上涨。可以这么说-大陆期货市场昨日周一整体盘面的表现“多头盛宴进行”中,甚至延伸到能源化工:橡胶、塑料、PTA商品上,黑色金属螺纹钢、煤炭 以及建材玻璃等等商品均出现上涨,昨日股票市场也不甘落后出现一定程度的补涨。对于我们更为关心油脂类商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,在昨日长阳上涨之后,今日周二盘中出现部分多头获利盘的短线平仓兑现,这在一定程度上造成期价大幅波动震荡(豆粕1609合约由于前期一直是反弹上行走势,今日周二盘面上的下跌;技术上出现顶背离的回落整理要求,对植物油市场带来拖累),对内盘油脂商品我们继续保持短多观点,但在操作上对今天的阴K线巨幅波动要保持一定的谨慎心态,莫让前期利润打水漂,建议关注美盘豆油今日晚间表现。

马盘毛棕榈油基准9月,昨日周一盘中跟随性上涨,期价呈现高开高走小阳K线收盘。今天周二盘中又受大陆内盘油脂商品的下跌影响而跳空低开,马盘的短线走势不稳,整体盘面走势还是较弱,多单继续谨慎持有,等待美盘豆油短线走势的指引。

小结:美盘尚未开盘,大陆内盘油脂商品暴涨过后期价剧烈波动,马盘短线走势犹豫不决-三地油脂商品在运行上仍分化。单从对大陆内盘油脂类商品来分析,由于近期中国大量闲置资金盯上商品期货(特别是贵金属商品与农产品商品受到资金青睐),再加上中国南方近期连降爆雨,对洪涝灾害的担忧情绪对农产品形成利好支持,这也是近期期货市场农产品类商品上涨的2大主要原因,我们对油脂类商品暂时仍以短多观点对待,多单谨慎持有,等待美盘豆油开盘的新的指引。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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