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Global Markets Analysis – 05 May 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


05.05.2015 周二 美盘豆油昨晚飙涨;今日马盘将补涨

中国大陆5月4日-5月5日,有消息传闻:由于前期油脂商品价格持续低迷不振,加之融资难度增大而进口减少,自去年10月份以来,国内油脂与油料进口量明显下降,据中国海关统计,去年10月至今年3月,豆油进口量为19.7万吨,比上年同期降低69.18%,棕榈油进口量为234.8万吨,比上年减少26.9%,菜籽油进口量为36.6万吨,同比减少32.24%。

库存方面,随着油脂进口量下降,大陆各港口豆油与棕榈油库存将至几个月低点, 截止5月1日,国内豆油商业库存为 62.47万吨,同比减少38.26万吨。港口棕榈油库存为39.62万吨,大幅低于去年同期的113.16万吨。大陆国内油脂商品由前期的供过于求逐渐向供需基本平衡,甚至向供应偏紧过渡。

现货方面,由于国内油脂与油料进口下降,库存紧张等情况,直接反应到现货市场价格,国内5.1劳动节休假3天,节后现货市场价格比节前现货价格豆油与棕榈油均有40元/吨的上涨。

中国大陆库存偏紧的传闻直接影响到美国期货市场,昨日晚间 美盘豆油7月合约长阳飙涨,一根长阳K线瞬间指明了短线走势方向,前期我们提到的短线”强势”整理出现结束信号,后市美盘豆油仍有技术走高要求。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1509主力合约,该品种前期表现就一直强于美盘 和马盘油脂商品,昨天周一节后开盘后,盘中再次出现独立走强迹象,(仅短短小幅回落整理了7日),日K线图表上自4月10日以来形成了短线3浪反弹上涨结构(1浪反,2浪强势回落整理 3浪昨天开始,当前进行中)。

马盘毛棕榈油昨天因公共假期而停盘,今天开盘后将会追随外围市场的走高而出现明显的补涨现象。

小结:全球油脂商品短线出现走强,昨日晚间的美盘红盘上涨,短线上又再次给我们指明了方向。回落整理结束后,后市建议仍以短线反弹看待。个人观点认为长多短空中长线锁单操作者今日空单第一时间平仓离场。节日前建议的短线空单激进操作者离场后,(马盘)今天建议反手短多逢低再次进场操作。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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