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Global Markets Analysis – 05 October 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


05.10.2016 周三 中国大陆投资者退出交易后;美盘与马盘油脂商品横盘波动

10月3日本周一,中国方面因国庆假期将停盘至10月9日。而马来西亚方面也因公共假期停盘一天,昨日10月4日周二马盘开盘交易。从昨日美盘与马盘的表现来看,期价呈现小幅波动横盘状态,其中美国方面由于正处于收获季,对收割压力的担忧(最新数据显示美国当前收割率为26%),以及下周农业部即将公布的各类数据的困扰,令美盘豆油12月期价上下两难。昨日周二马盘毛棕榈油基准12月,期价低开低走,全天呈现十字星小阴K线走势,整体期价变化不大,市场交投略显清淡。当前油脂商品从美盘与马盘的昨日走势来看,略显疲弱态势。

今天10月5日周三,马盘继续交易,考虑到全球期货市场缺少了中国大陆交易者参与,恐油脂商品依旧会小幅波动震荡。马盘毛棕榈油基准12月,将受美盘豆油的疲弱影响,期价会继续回落均线(日K线图表上,马棕榈均线为多头排列),下方均线还是存在一定的技术支撑能力。

小结:中国内盘因公共假期停盘,中国是全球豆油第一进口消费大国,棕榈油第二消费大国(棕榈油消费仅次于印度),在缺少中国投资者参与下,全球油脂商品交易上略显清淡,当前时刻-主要关注美盘豆油的后续表现,不出意外的情况下,美盘豆油会延续当前这种疲软走势。我们继续建议无仓单散户朋友,场外观望为上策, 同时密切关注美盘豆油的后续表现。

[SUMMARY]
• As China is the largest importer of soybean oil and second largest importer of palm oil, trading of global edible oils is relatively quiet due to public holidays in China.
• We shall, at the moment, pay attention to US soybean oil, which is expected to lose momentum in further trading.

[Action]
• Retail traders without existing positions may sit on the sidelines; in the mean time observe the performance of US soybean oil.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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