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Global Markets Analysis – 06 April 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


06.04.2016 周三 美盘豆油获利回吐期价滑落;短空看待后市

昨日周二晚间,美盘豆油5月合约中阴K线下跌,盘中获利回吐迹象明显,K线组合形成了阴包阳的“吞没”走势,我们内心中的那许久以来的担忧终于成为现实-果然没有持续很久,技术超买后的泡沫一旦破裂,后市下挫回落整理的回调概率大增, 等待今日晚间继续第二跟阴K线的下跌后,后市的行情将会更清晰。对美盘豆油我们后市短线以短空观点对待。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,前2日受美盘大豆种植面积预期减少的利多因素影响,期价在高位多维持2个交易日(23个交易日),这离我们预测的21个交易日也不是相差很远,内盘前2日存在情绪化操作,期价在高位多震荡了2日,特别是豆油1609还情绪性的虚涨了一天,但这假象并未迷惑住我们的眼睛,今天建议短线场外观望的交易者再次短线空单进场。后市的短线回落整理走势是我们一直以来坚信的。

马盘毛棕榈油基准6月,昨日周二盘终以带上影线的小阴K线收盘,期价仍未上破前几日的高点2793令吉特,高位多横盘震荡了6个交易日,在美盘与内盘今日走势明确后,相信马盘棕榈也将会从高位跌落下来,20多天反弹上行之后的短线回落整理行情在所难免,此刻马盘还有半小时开盘,建议短线观望的激进交易者可反手短空操作,后市油脂商品将回调整理。

小结:美盘利多因素被吸收消化后,期价在超买状态下不能维持太久,昨日美盘的获利回吐走势已见端倪,若今日晚间美盘再继续下挫,则我们一直预测的短线回落整理行情必将展开。从今天美盘与内盘的走势上观察,该走势已显露苗头。后市短线我们以短空性质的回落整理观点对待。观点认为具体操作上:长线稳健型交易者多单可逢高离场,待回落结束后再接回,滚动操作一下。已经多单出场的中线与短线交易者,场外观望2日后,今天建议短线空单逢高进场试盘,后市短线走势上存在反弹后的回调整理技术要求。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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