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Global Markets Analysis – 06 April 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


06.04.2017 周四 油脂类商品超跌之后技术性反弹修复

美国方面利空基本面情况不断,市场上压力重重。在美国农业部公布利空报告后,美盘大豆豆油出现止跌迹象——-该跌不跌,必有玄机!美盘豆油5月合约,昨日周三晚间低位阳K线收盘,密切关注今晚明天的短线走势情况—看是否出现错列的反弹阳K线出现?

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,节假后,昨日周三首度开盘交易—-期价低开高走收阳,特别是内盘棕榈油1709合约,长下影线中阳收盘,低位反弹迹象明显。内盘油脂在清明节假期前最后一个交易日曾建议空单减仓,昨日早盘又建议空单平仓了结——随后密切关注反弹走势能否延续下去。

马盘毛棕榈油基准6月,昨日盘中低开高走长阳报收,创5个月来最大单日涨幅(3.15%)。马盘棕榈一阳包多阴的走势,盘面更显凌厉,增仓上行的盘面语言——-显示出多头主力的积极介入,技术性走强更加明显。

小结:油脂类商品超跌之后出现技术性修复反弹动作,虽然当前基本面情况不太支持盘面走强,但我们依旧谨防反弹报复动作的出现,后市短线以谨慎的短多反弹观点对待。具体操作上:在空单逢低平仓出局后,原锁仓仓单只留下多单。而手中无仓单的散户朋友中—–部分激进型短线交易者可少量多单进场试盘,而稳健型散户交易者可待美盘豆油出现连续错列反弹动作明朗后再多单进场亦可。后市短线密切关注美盘豆油的后续技术性反弹动作是否发生。

[SUMMARY]
• Edible oils show technical signals of a reversal, following a steep decline.
• While the case for an uptrend is not fundamentally strong, we should be cautious of any potential reversal.
• We hold a short-term long rebound outlook, with a high caution.

[ACTION]
• Traders may retain long position.
• Aggressive traders may initiate long positions.
• Passive traders may enter into long positions after signals of a reversal become clearer.
• We shall pay close attention to the possibility of a technical reversal of US soybean oil.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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