Share

Tweet this

Dealing Desk Hotline

(603)-2181 8848

Global Markets Analysis – 06 December 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


06.12.2016 周二“多事之秋”散户朋友场外观望为宜

受意大利修宪公投政治因素影响,欧洲市场仍陷于一片焦虑情绪当中,全球外汇市场率先受到冲击-欧元先是大幅暴跌至2015年3月以来的最低点,而后有快速拉升至今年11月以来的最高点,欧元的巨幅震荡波动,表明全球投资人士的焦虑情绪仍在蔓延中-意大利作为欧元区第三大经济实体,是否脱欧?后期的不确定性因素还将在未来炒作很长一段时间。

全球油脂类商品整体受该事件影响不大,美盘豆油1月合约期价依旧在高位震荡,前期的反弹上行动能仍未完全衰竭,但也出现了上涨停滞现象,我们继续谨慎短多心态对待。大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1705主力合约,依旧保持窄区间的高位横盘震荡状态,这里我们也要保持谨慎态度,历史经验时时提醒我们散户朋友“久盘必跌”,一种理性操作模式还是非常必要的。对于马盘毛棕榈油基准2月来说,该品种追随美盘原油与美盘豆油;内盘油脂商品的短线走势-依旧保持一种较强的反弹上行欲望,在昨日周一盘中以红盘长阳上涨,期价再度创出四年多以来的新高度,我们手中多单继续保持逢高派发操作模式(越见新高越对冲了结)。具体操作上:已经兑现利润出局的散多朋友场外观望,多单出局后不建议再追多操作或者逢高放空操作,建议出局后短暂观望,待市场情绪稳定后-或者美盘油脂商品出现新的技术信号后,我们再从新追随进场操作,在此之前,以规避风险与兑现利润为第一要素,不建议盲目操作。

[SUMMARY]
• The recent referendum in Italy has minimal effect on the global edible oil markets, with US soybean oil January 2017 futures contract hovering at high prices, although the uptrend is seeing signs of easing.
• China soybean oil and palm oil are still trading at a high but tight range, of which we should maintain high awareness.
• Experience tells us that prices are expected to fall after a prolonged uptrend.
• Malaysia palm olein is likely to follow the rise of US crude oil and palm oil, and China edible oils in the short-term.

[ACTION]
• Traders who have close-out positions and taken profit may remain uncommitted and temporarily observe the market from the sidelines, at least until the market calms down.
• Traders may wait for technical signals on US soybean oil to emerge before taking a position.
• Securing profits and avoiding risk are the priority.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email
 

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






Share and Enjoy:
[del.icio.us] [Digg] [Facebook] [Google] [Mixx] [MySpace] [Twitter] [Windows Live] [Yahoo!] [Email]

Post a Comment

Displayed next to your comments.

Not displayed publicly

If you have a website, link ti it here

PLEASE NOTE:

OPF reserves the right to delete comments that are snarky, offensive, or off-topic. If in doubt, read our Comments Policy.


SiteLock