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Global Markets Analysis – 06 January 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


06.01.2015 周二 纽约原油见低点49.68美元/桶

1月5日周一,沙特阿拉伯宣布调降2月份对欧洲国家原油出口价格,受此利空消息影响国际原油价格周一出现新低49.68美元,为2009年以来5年半新低。与此同时美国也准备取消执行了40多年的原油出口禁令,这更加速了原油价格探底过程,这也是昨日晚间美原油与布伦特原油出现下跌的主要原因。这表明美国与中东不见“硝烟的战争”仍在延续中。前期我们已经技术分析过,美原油下方理论技术支撑位为50.00美元左右(上升趋势线),在该位置存在支撑,即便出现瞬间毛刺下破(1-2美元空间幅度),理论上也应该收回。因此我们对美原油后市观点从纯技术角度保持不变,寻支撑探底过程进入到尾声阶段,后市仍需时日对该位置反复震荡进行验证。

在美原油昨晚出现新低时候,美盘豆油3月合约昨日未跟随下跌,在32.00下方买盘支撑下低开高走长阳上涨收盘,我们前期技术分析美豆油下方技术支撑位置在31.00-30.00一线(上升趋势线位置),当前美豆油在该位置多日表现截止到今天为有效。

受美豆油昨日长阳上涨影响,今天周二早盘,大陆内盘豆油与棕榈油1505主力合约低开小幅高走,短线的震荡跟随走势延续中。

马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,昨日平开冲高回落走低短线震荡,今天周二早盘高开高走冲高,前期短线的反弹上行走势延续中。

小结:美原油正在考验技术支撑位的有效性,探底过程验证中,在未明显出现金针探底之前,植物油市场豆油和棕榈油仍短线震荡走势,当前整体油脂类商品走到关键时期,在这最为敏感时刻,短线前期接盘的少量多单可继续持有。激进长线操作者接盘多单待未来几日下方瞬间回落下探企稳时刻少量进场埋伏,稳健长线操作者可待企稳信号明确,反转信号清晰后再进场也不迟。行情从今天开始进入到非常时刻,散户朋友打起精神密切关注全球油脂商品市场价格变化。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 










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