Share

Tweet this

Dealing Desk Hotline

(603)-2181 8848

Global Markets Analysis – 06 January 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


6.1.2015 周三 油脂商品短线走软;美盘豆油考验下方60天支撑

美盘豆油3月合约,连续2天期价走软后,盘面走势逐渐清晰起来。美豆油3月日K线图表上技术观察:短线角度来说,从2015年11月16日到 12月7日为第一小浪反弹,从12月7日至今为第二浪回落整理,(并且这第二浪为更小的3浪结构组成),美盘豆油3月前期的表现一直弱于大陆内盘与马盘棕榈,现在终于明白是因为美盘豆油的二浪回落整理(回抽均线确认)一直未完全完成,当前仍属于回抽确认过程中。当前期价终于回落到日K线图表下方的60天均线位置,该位置存在2个技术方面的支撑,1.60天均线的支撑,2.2015年10月21日 前高被向上突破后的回抽确认支撑力度(29.50一线左右)。美盘豆油3月合约后市短线将在这2个位置做一个了断-若支撑有效则会真正反身向上形成第三浪走势,若支撑无效则会下破继续走低而继续大周期层面的低位徘徊震荡。美盘豆油3月后市如何演绎,尚待盘面走势给出明确答案,短线操作者可场外关注。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1605主力合约,短线走势追随美盘走低,截止到今天周三盘中,日K线图表上形成两阴夹一阳的K线形态,该形态对短线走势仍不利,不排除后市进一步走低的可能。我们暂以短空看待。

马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,新年开盘后3天表现为一阴两阳,但阳K线始终未突破阴K线的高点,形成了抵抗性的下坠走势,表明马盘毛棕榈油盘中虽有多头主力抵抗,但期价仍属于下挫走势,短线受到美盘与大陆内盘的拖累较为明显。

小结:美盘豆油走势明显弱于大陆内盘与马盘油脂商品,在美盘豆油下挫过程中,内盘与马盘油脂商品受到拖累,从当前短线角度观察,我们只能先终止短线多单操作,以规避不利走势对短多操作者带来的账面损失。后市短线上—美盘豆油后市在关键技术位置如何表现将成为对后市走势指引的关键。观点认为操作上:长线多单暂时持有,中线波段多单谨慎持有,短线多单平仓出局。建议密切关注美盘豆油的后市表现,暂时先以疲软看待。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

Subscribe to OPF Blog via Feed Reader or Email
 

DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






Share and Enjoy:
[del.icio.us] [Digg] [Facebook] [Google] [Mixx] [MySpace] [Twitter] [Windows Live] [Yahoo!] [Email]

Post a Comment

Displayed next to your comments.

Not displayed publicly

If you have a website, link ti it here

PLEASE NOTE:

OPF reserves the right to delete comments that are snarky, offensive, or off-topic. If in doubt, read our Comments Policy.


SiteLock