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Global Markets Analysis – 06 January 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


06.01.2016 周五 美盘豆油迟迟不见动静;内盘与马盘部分多头主力信心有所丢失

美盘豆油3月合约,昨日周四晚间曾一度红盘上涨,但终盘未形成我们预期中的“错列红K线”,而是以小十字星阴K线收盘。美盘关键技术位置的表现不尽如人意-但整体来说,美盘豆油回落整理后的反弹酝酿阶段仍在延续中,盘面短线走势尚未出现大跌情况发生,我们继续保持短线回落整理后的短多反弹观点不变。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1705主力合约,在美盘豆油迟迟不见动静的波动震荡中,内盘油脂商品多头主力的信心出现减弱信号,本周以来在多头主力的犹豫徘徊中,空头主力逮住机会开始发力,造成期价略有走低。

马盘毛棕榈油基准3月,昨日周四盘中曾一度高开(3164令吉特开盘),受内盘油脂商品疲软影响,在下午尾盘时候突然期价跳水,终盘以光头光脚的中阴K线下跌收盘,昨日盘面信号-增仓下行与空头进场打压迹象明显。今天周五盘面,再度低开低走-盘面减仓下行,表明短线多头有出逃迹象。内盘油脂商品本周持续疲软 以及马来西亚令吉特走强是造成马盘棕榈这2日出现期价下跌的罪魁祸首。

小结:仔细观察美盘豆油3月合约,该品种短线走势黏黏糊糊,盘中走势无新意,始终不能给予内盘与马盘油脂商品明确的短线方向指引,这造成了内盘与马盘多头主力开始信心不足。但仅从美盘豆油来说-美豆油的反弹酝酿过程仍在延续中,并未出现支持内盘与马盘油脂商品大跌的信号出现,仅仅是由于美盘豆油的犹豫徘徊而造成了内盘与马盘多头主力情绪上发生微妙变化-针对此情况,我们建议给予美盘豆油多一两个交易日的时间观察,然后再在内盘与马盘油脂商品上做出新的操作, 暂时以静制动的对待内盘与马盘发生的当前盘面特征。观点认为操作上:前期多单继续谨慎持有。

[SUMMARY]
• Short-term performance of US soybean oil remains indecisive and fails to indicate where China and Malaysia markets may be headed.
• As a result, the long interest in China and Malaysia is starting to lose momentum.
• The reversal of US soybean oil is yet to indicate any signal of a steep drop in China and Malaysia edible oils.
• The lack of direction in US soybean oil creates uneasiness in long interest on China and Malaysia edible oils.
• We shall observe the performance of US soybean oil in the next 2-3 trading days.

[ACTION]
• Traders may maintain existing long position.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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