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Global Markets Analysis – 06 July 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


06.07.2016 风云突变-美豆油昨晚下跌;大陆内盘油脂商品急挫跌停

美盘豆油12月合约,昨日晚间开盘后中阴下跌,期价下破5月25日的低点位置, 短线技术走势上又出现疲弱态势,但由于前期美盘豆油一直处于回落整理走势,这表明美盘豆油的下挫整理走势尚未真正完结(未找到真正的技术支撑点),期价的再度下跌“不破不立”,相信下方空间不会太大,暂时以下挫整理尾声的疲软走势短空看待。但看空不做空。

大陆内盘油脂商品情况就不同了-出现了惊人的逆转行情,在前期美盘与马盘油脂商品未发力上行时候,内盘豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,独立的持续一周的连续震荡上扬走势在昨日宽幅震荡波动之后,今天盘面上出现了长阴大跌,宣告内盘的短线反弹走势受美盘豆油下跌影响而终结。今天周三盘中竟然以跌停板出现,行情突变令人措手不及-昨天报告中还担忧利润打水漂,这种担忧瞬间就变成了现实。昨晚期价下挫时候,若有精明敏感操作者多单减持的当为合格的短线操作者,尚未及时多单平仓了结的交易者也只好持仓静观其变了。

马盘毛棕榈油基准9月,7月6日(星期三)与7月7日(星期四)为开斋节-马盘因公共假期将停盘2天无交易,周五才开盘。

小结:由于美盘豆油因美国独立日公共假期停盘一天后,开盘出现下跌,表明美盘豆油12月合约的回落整理短线下挫走势仍在延续中,美盘豆油的这一举措,瞬间终止了大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1609合约持续一周以来的反弹上扬走势,今日周三内盘的长阴K线跌停板,令油脂商品风云突变,短线反弹行情瞬间被逆转。昨日晚间盘已经减仓的交易者出局后暂时观望,尚未及时平仓多单了结的散户朋友,在跌停板情况下可挂单平仓-是否能平仓出局就不好说了(跌停板情况下,只能买进而不能卖出,因此多单卖出很难成交),不能成交的交易者也只好多单持有、顺其自然、静观其变。没有更好办法了,短线利润打水漂成为可能,也只好作罢了。继续关注美盘豆油的回落空间。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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