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Global Markets Analysis – 06 March 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


06.03.2015 周五 油脂商品短线回落 短空看待

在南美大豆庞大产量即将上市影响,全球油脂类商品受拖累,美国现货市场受利空影响严重。其中美大豆与美豆油双双下挫,其中美豆油5月合约,周四晚间期价再次下破32.00箱体下沿一线,短线行情走势一波三折,存在技术走坏苗头。短线调整行情展开。

中国大陆近两日豆油与棕榈油各主要港口现货价格下跌,下跌幅度每吨从20元-50元不等。另外今天国内有消息传闻,专业人士称:国有储备大豆开始轮换出库工作,这为后期进口巴西大豆提前腾库。这则消息对大陆内盘大豆、豆粕、豆油商品形成短线利空。内盘油脂商品豆油和棕榈油1505合约昨日低开低走,短线走弱迹象明显,今天周五早盘延续下挫,回落行情进行中。

马来西亚行业会议专家意见不一,对马毛棕榈油后市走势不明确。受美国与中国大陆油脂商品外围市场走软影响,马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,连续2日收阴,昨天今天冲高回落,前期反弹行情存在终结反向可能,昨日逢高减持前期多单之后,暂观望。

小结:当前油脂类商品受南美大豆收割上市利空影响较大,美盘豆油5月已经再次技术下坡原箱体下沿,短线再次出现走坏迹象,油脂商品连续2日的走软,短线反弹行情遭到破坏,后市短线我们转为回落下探看待。个人观点认为昨日早盘第一时间建议逢高减持前期低位接盘多单,多单出局后中线稳健者暂时离场观望,短线激进操作者适当反手短空操作,逢高短空空单日内操作,暂不建议持仓过夜。当前市场短线多空转换较快,市场人心不稳,价格波动较大,暂以规避风险为主。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 










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