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Global Markets Analysis – 06 May 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


06.05.2015周三 油脂商品本周三个交易日“三红小兵”

基本面方面:北京5月6日消息,中国将向大豆主产区,东北三省以及内蒙古自治区的大豆种植户提供补贴,以取代以往的大豆临储政策。(以前的临储政策导致国内大豆价格往往高于全球大豆价格,进一步引发大豆进口量激增,消弱中国大豆种植热情)由于本次向大豆种植农户直接补贴45元/亩,农户普遍认为该补贴价格较低,有机构预测这将打击中国豆农的种植积极性,可能会导致今年的大豆播种面积减少10-20%。

美盘豆油7月合约,打开日K线图表,本周一开始三根阳K线错列上行,短线的上扬飙涨走势明显。截止到今天下午2点,期价已经涨至33.40一线,我们前期一直提到的30.00一线, 中长线多单可进场埋伏操作策略依然有效。本次的短线反弹是否能宣告中长线角度的筑大底结束仍需我们后市的密切关注。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1509主力合约,本周一节后开盘后,率先红盘三K线上扬,盘面上反弹上行的3浪形态走势最为明显,日K线图表上目测观察-1浪反弹,2浪整理,3浪继续上行,其中3浪与1浪上涨的幅度已经相当接近,后期短线观察是3浪延伸还是走第4浪。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月合约,在交易时间上短,美盘与内盘一个交易日,节前在箱体下沿部位短暂停留(我们曾建议短空平仓离场),昨日马盘开盘后,期价跳空高开,终盘阴K线收盘,(昨日的盘面显示空头还不死心),今天周三的中阳K线再次跳空高开高走,表明短线多头已经完胜,后市短线仍有上扬空间。

小结:市场传闻中国在油脂类商品上加紧采购,大陆现货市场今天又有80元/吨的价格上涨。期货市场与现货市场的同步上扬对全球油脂商品的反弹上行做多人气带来极大影响,短线仍对油脂商品看高一线。个人建议前期中长线多单继续持有。短线刚刚反手进场的激进型短线操作者多单谨慎持有。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 










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