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Global Markets Analysis – 06 May 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


06.05.2016周五 美盘豆油继续考验在关键技术位的支撑效力

外媒5月6日最新消息:强厄尔尼诺造成阿根廷出现的异常暴雨,对阿根廷大豆产量影响严重,阿根廷全国大豆受到真菌与疾病的影响,阿根廷布宜诺斯艾利斯谷物交易所表示,今年阿根廷大豆产量可能达到5600万吨,低于早先预测的6000万吨,后期一旦损失程度明朗化,产量数据将进一步下调(当前三分之一豆田仍有积水)。 从阿根廷国内情况分析,阿根廷大豆产量恐将继续下调,对后期中长线大豆的供应形成利多支持,我们保持中长线角度看多观点不变。

美盘豆油7月合约,昨日周四晚间小阴K线收盘,今天亚洲电子盘截止到目前阴十字星表现,期价见到32.01,当前期价已经非常接近下方的上升趋势线位置(我们预测的是31.90至32.00一线,建议密切关注该位置的技术支撑,越靠近上升趋势线位置-越是我们逢低买入进场的机会,这一操作思维是我们当前注意短线操作模式。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,今天周五盘面高开低走,期价继续中阴下挫整理,其中内盘棕榈油触及到下方60天均线位置后,略带下影线,表明在60天均线位置(5300一线)有部分多头接盘,对内盘油脂商品来说,短线的回落调整仍在进行中,后期,逢盘中急挫时候,低位的逢低少量多单埋伏仍为首选操作策略。

马盘毛棕榈油基准7月,本周三时候低开高走长阳报收,昨日周四盘中又红盘表现,短线走势上率先出现反身走强迹象,在美盘与内盘尚未完全调整到位情况下,我们要高度关注马盘棕榈油的这一异常表现。考虑到美盘尚在确认上升趋势线的支撑作用以及内盘今日早盘的下挫,恐马盘棕榈油7月今天周五盘中期价会出现一定程度下跌,这恰好给我们一个逢低买入的机会。同时,马来西亚棕榈油局(MPOB)将于下周二(5月10日)公布官方供需数据。这也是我们关注马盘棕榈短线走势的信号指引。

小结:美盘豆油仍在确认上升趋势线的支撑效力,在美盘豆油靠近趋势线越近地方,在对应的内盘与马盘期价低位时候,少量多单进场埋伏仍为我们的主流操作策略,而多单止损位就放在美盘上升趋势线被下破 X点,这里的X点要依据我们个人的心理承受能力自行确定。(在均线多头排列;期价回落到下方60天均线位置,恰好该位置又是原来的上升趋势线的技术支撑位置-在这2个关键位置,逢低买入仍是我们后市操作的主要操作模式,我们在提前做好止损心理预期后,该操作模式为本周末和下周初的最佳操作建议。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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