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Global Markets Analysis – 06 November 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


06.11.2015 周五 油脂类商品期价仍在反复;谨慎对待

行情年年有,今年最难做。美盘豆油12月,这么长时间以来走势最让人头疼,一直是横盘无序的波动,当你眼看它要发动一个波段行情时候,它不自觉的就泄了。真成了“扶不起的阿斗了”(刘备的孩子)。周三当天中阳红盘上涨后,原以为它要发力上行,这昨日周四晚间又中阴下跌,阴K线吞没了周三阳K线。期价运行的持续性一点在盘中得不到体现,对美盘豆油这几个月来表现真是不好操作。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油1601合约无奈的追随美盘豆油走势,期价也随美盘豆油12月合约上下震荡波动,短线呈忽强忽弱走势。棕榈油1601合约,短线的回落整理小波段行情走势较为稳定明显,期价呈下挫式寻底部支撑,期价逐步靠近2015年8月份的前低位置。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,近段时间期价也是上蹿下跳式波动,上方有压力而下方有支撑,第4浪的运行轨迹形成一个小箱体状,期价仅在这个箱体内波动(2270-2380,个别是110个点之间),这个箱体是要迟早被打破的,建议继续关注市场打破箱体的方向。

小结:油脂类商品在短线下挫回落整理的尾声阶段,期价再次出现小的反复,油脂商品期价运行的持续性不够,更多的是来回震荡。这基本符合中长线筑大底期价容易反复的特征。但对短线角度来说,建议在操作上,这种横盘波动的模式在操作难度上就相对变大了。我们继续保持震荡筑大底观点不变前提下,对短线走势保持谨慎态度,不再盲目的改变操作策略,静待市场自己随机波动吧。观点认为中长线多单持有。短线空单出局后的反手多单持有,(给它点回落空间它也不会很大)。没有持仓进场的散户朋友场外观望。一般来讲一段行情开端,期价下跌之前总有个快速上冲,期价上涨前期价总有个急促下挫,场外观望者就等急促下挫完成时。多单再埋伏进。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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