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Global Markets Analysis – 06 November 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


06.11.2017周一上周五晚间美盘豆油长阴K线暴跌

美盘豆油12月合约,上周五晚间长阴下跌,期价瞬间下破原上行通道的下边轨(原趋势线),在连续几天站在趋势线上方毛刺表现之后(假突破),市场终于给出我们明确信号,基本符合11月3日周五报告中我们的研判预期。在多头主力上攻动能衰竭后,在遭遇空头主力死命打压后——一根长阴K线瞬间给我们指明的短线走势方向,我们继续保持逢高阻击后的短空观点不变,后市关注焦点转移到下挫回落空间大小上来。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1801主力合约,今天周一早盘,期价低开低走中阴K线表现,盘面追随美盘豆油走低,我们继续保持短空思维,原空单继续持有。

马盘毛棕榈油基准1月,上周初时候市场表现还为强势,期价大有上攻9月14日前高2860令吉特的强烈欲望,我们2次强烈建议在2850一线逢高空单阻击(空单止损点就放在2860上方X点,站上去我们认赔X点出局,站不上跌落下来则看低到2800下方Y点,并且Y:X之比绝对在4:1之上,空单操作风险概率极低,操作模式思维简单干脆明了)。今天马盘棕榈油1月期价跳空低开低走表现,期价已经跌破2800整数关之下,我们继续短空观点对待。

小结;美盘豆油多头主力多次毛刺上攻无果,上周五晚间终于长阴K线下跌认输溃败,后市短线空头主力仍会继续打压期价,我们继续保持短线角度逢高阻击后的短空思维不变。具体操作上:前期空单继续持有,后市短线关注焦点转移到短线回落空间大小上来?接下来的主要任务是寻找空单离场的时机把握。(我们主要工作重点不是坚决看空多少?而是等待期价回落下来后的多单逢低接盘时机的把握,前期报告中我们短线中线长线三种周期角度已经论述过我们的大观点,而这里主要是站在短线周期角度论述的更多一些,希望散户朋友不要在三种周期操作相驳观点中,在市场中迷失自己——这里我们再简单几句话论述一遍,中线角度随着最后收割工作的最后几天的来临期价在新豆大量上市压力前有最后一次下挫要求,而长线角度收获季节却是一年当中期价最低的时候,短线角度是前期技术反弹上行之后在关键技术位有阻挡压力,我们当前仅仅是沿着市场期价运行的轨迹,由近到远,由小周期到大周期操作的,但我们的研判是从大周期到小周期,从宏观到微观来分析的,但分析不代表具体的操作,并且分析与操作,二者之间也不存在思维上矛盾,我们只是首先以操作为主,这层含义希望散户朋友能明白)。

[SUMMARY]
• US soybean oil failed to trade higher for five consecutive days. Eventually, it tumbled last Friday.
• We continue to remain our short-term short outlook as the market is expected to move downward.
• In medium-term, harvesting work is going to end in coming few days, prompting the market might move downward.
• Retail traders should have clear outlooks on short-term, medium-term and long-term market.

[ACTION]
• Traders may continue to retain short positions and pay close attention to the movement of US soybean oil.
• Next step, traders may seek opportunities for taking profit when the prices are low.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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