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Global Markets Analysis – 06 September 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


06.09.2016 周二 油脂类商品中长短各周期多单持有;后市期价存在快速拉升上涨机会

美盘昨日周一因公共假期停盘,今日晚间将开盘交易,从今天白天亚洲电子盘的表现来看,早盘跳空高开高走,在油脂类商品普遍走强带动下,恐今日晚间美盘豆油12月合约也将会有不俗的市场表现,后市操作思维观点由原来的短空思维转为反身上涨观点对待。

近期国内棕榈油进口量偏少,国内总库存一直处于历史低位,这势必提振国内现货市场棕榈油价格,截止9月2日各港口24度棕榈油报价为:张家港为6100-6150,日照港6150,宁波港6150元/吨,均较以前有较大涨幅。这对期货市场现货月原本就贴水状态的棕榈油期货价格存在一定的提振作用。在马来西亚棕榈油强劲上涨带动下,大陆内盘油脂类商品如豆油与棕榈油 1701主力合约也跟随上涨,内盘油脂商品短线角度走强迹象越发明显,继续短多思路对待。

马来西亚船运调查结构ITS数据显示,8月份1-31日棕榈油出口为1620795吨,比7月份1—31日出口的1273543吨增加27%左右。而产量方面,从美国农业部数据显示,2015-2016年度全球棕榈油产量将从上年的6164万吨减少到5940万吨,印度尼西亚与马来西亚棕榈油供应量2016年度将减少200万吨左右。期货市场马盘毛棕榈油基准11月,上周五本周一连续两天的扭头向上,在运行形态上已然形成了短线角度的(日K线图标上)V型反转走势,从以往的经验来讲,V型走势的右侧势必将出现猛烈的期价波动,今天周二盘面上显示,当前马棕榈11月期价已经临近前高点一线(3月29、4月21日、8月17日的高点),由于前三次都是从该高点滑落下来-而事不过三,相信本次第四次挑战前高,我个人主观认为2669令吉特高点一定会被向上突破,后市突破该高点之后势必新的上涨空间将打开,我们很早以前就预期的-小周期的三浪结构的主升浪还在后边,因此中长短各个周期的多单继续持有,后市完全有理由看高一大截,短线的多头盛宴即将来临。

小结:全球油脂类商品短暂回落整理结束信号逐步明显,我们前期预期的“强势整理,下方回落空间不大”将成为现实,瞬间的反身上涨,我们对后市的反弹上行空间抱有强烈的想象空间。观点认为操作上:前期中长线多单继续持仓不动,短线新进埋伏多单持有,后市短线坚定信心看高一线。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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