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Global Markets Analysis – 07 April 2017

A commentary written by Tony Tong


07.04.2017 周五 美盘豆油昨日晚间阴K线下跌 未能延续前日阳K线走势

美盘豆油5月合约,昨日周四晚间长阴下跌,令周三的中阳K线涨幅又被吞没,短线预期中的2根错列阳K线未能出现。仔细观察美豆油日K线图表—–低位向右侧横盘的迹象较为明显,期价也未出现明显下跌,我们继续保持超卖之后的技术震荡筑底观点对待。

内盘油脂商品豆油棕榈油1709主力合约,追随美盘豆油走势,特别是内盘豆油超跌严重,耐心等待其地位的止跌企稳信号出现。内盘棕榈油1709合约,清明节假期开盘后,有过2天阳K线反弹动作,在昨日美盘豆油长阴下跌情况下,今日周五盘面上期价下跌幅度并未很大(仅回落到内盘阳K线一半位置),棕榈油短多主力仍未完全放弃。

马盘毛棕榈油基准6月,在周三长阳上涨之后,今天周五盘中期价有所回落—-早盘期价低开低走状态,整体运行在阳K线之内波动震荡,马棕榈短线走势紧紧追随内盘美盘短线走势较为明显。

小结:油脂类商品短线走势“一波三折”,盘面上多空主力对后市短线走势观点分歧较为严重—-1.基本面派对后市看空,2.技术面派存在超跌之后抢反弹的蠢蠢心理预期,二股力量仍在纠缠不休,尚不能出现一方决定性力量占优。当前的基本面确实存在利空因素影响(播种面积增加,大豆库存保持高位,马盘棕榈油产量增加预期),而利多因素尚不够明朗—-全球生物柴油执行情况不明,全球投资人士所期望的中国油脂需求情况也未有大的改善,而天气炒作还未真正拉开序幕。这也是多空主力观点存在严重分歧的主要因素。抛开基本面情况—-单以技术层面来讲,我们更倾向于中线超跌之后存在技术反弹走势的心理预期,因此上我们不盲目往下看空很多,后市继续关注美盘豆油右侧横盘之后的反弹动作发生。具体操作上:空单逢低平仓了结出局后,剩余多单继续持有,短线激进型操作者新进试仓多单谨慎持有(棕榈油以4月5日阳K线低点为多单止损点,下破后才考虑止损),而稳健型短线交易者可继续场外观望,密切关注美盘豆油下挫幅度与力度,关注下周初市场表现。

[SUMMARY]
• Short-term trend of edible oils remains bumpy, indicating strong conflict between long and short interest.
• Market fundamentals are bearish.
• Technical signals are indecisive.
• Increased acreage, high stockpile of soybean and higher-than-expected out of Malaysia palm oil contribute to bearish sentiment.
• There is still uncertainty on biodiesel policies, demand for edible oils in China and overall climate.
• From technical point of view, a rebound may follow the mid-term overselling.
• Hence, we shall limit our short outlook and prepare for a possible rebound.

[ACTION]
• Traders may maintain long positions.
• Aggressive short-term traders may cautious hold long positions.
• Passive traders may stay on the sidelines while closely observing the extent of the decline of US soybean oil.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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