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Global Markets Analysis – 07 December 2015

A commentary written by Tony Tong


07.12.2015 周一 美盘豆油利好支持长阳上涨

美元指数上周四的长阴暴跌,令全球大宗商品压力减轻,较为明显的是美黄金上周五的中阳上涨,后市短线看多贵金属商品。对油脂类商品来说;除受美元影响外,金融市场投资人士对美国农业部本周产量下调的预期,中国需求强劲以及有传闻美国政府将对生物柴油生产商实施税收优惠政策等待。这些因素都提振美盘豆油走势, 上周五(12月4日)美豆油1月合约长阳上涨,期价短线反弹上行走势出现加速迹象。日K线图表上均线系统继续上穿中,多头排列的日K线图表雏形显现。

大陆内盘油脂类商品豆油棕榈油1605主力合约,受美盘豆油上周末的上涨情绪带动,今天周一早盘高开高走,短线的反弹走势延续中,今天内盘油脂商品仍出现上影线,特别是豆油1605合约,这种盘口技术语言告诉我们,经过前期的持续反弹上行,上方仍有一定的获利盘逢高减仓。短线操作者对这一信号仍需要保持警惕心理准备。

马盘毛棕榈油基准5月,受美盘豆油与内盘油脂商品反弹上行影响,以及马来西亚方面对厄尔尼诺造成的干燥天气威胁棕榈油产量和印尼的生物柴油政策利多影响,今天12月7日周一早盘跳空高开,虽盘中高开低走阴K线运行,但短线上行的补涨行情仍延续中,期价重心上移过程中,前期多单继续持有。建议密切关注前期高点2500-2520一线的技术压制作用。

小结:全球油脂类商品期价重心上移延续中,期价出现上行加速迹象,这是我们一直预期的。对于后市短线,油脂类商品期价运行轨迹我们今天提前做个走势规划,好让散户朋友在大脑中对后期短线走势有个清晰的印象以及节奏的把握-首先期价从朦胧中小幅反弹,这时候众多的普通散户操作者还不会完全清晰后市的反弹走势(但我们会在此刻第一时间内报告提醒)。中期随着期价持续的上扬,这时候散户朋友才开始逐渐明白过来期价开始要反弹上行了。到中后期;短线波段与期价开始上扬加速(这时候散户操作者才真正明白;大部分追进多单也都是这个时候),但他们忘记了一点。随着期价持续短线反弹,期价的快速上扬才把下方的均线系统拉起,从而短期均线上穿长期均线,均线系统的多头排列形成雏形-这地方有个问题,当期价上扬过快时候,远离均线时候,会出现回抽均线的动作(该动作的力量来源就是下方早期进多的获利盘涌出以及上方空头技术压制盘的打压;二股力量合力),我们要在期价回落回抽确认均线之前把短线多单的获利部分逢高减仓出来。这是我们最佳的操作理念和操作手法。我们当前短线角度不是讨论对反弹上行的走势的合理性产生质疑,我们此刻关注焦点其实已经转移到反弹高度??以及回抽均线动作何时展开上?(我们的操作节奏与心理节奏要快普通散户一步;思维要超前一些)。观点认为短线反弹上行走势持续中,短多看待的同时,我们心理上要开始保持对后市回落发生之前的逢高减仓机会(其实当大众普通操作者开始进场的时候;恰好是我们短线多单准备出场的时候)。个人认为中线与长线多单继续持有。而短线多单开始保持警惕。长上影阳K线,乌云盖顶阴K线以及黄昏之星K线,短线反弹出现压力的时候都是我们需要警惕的时候。(会进场 ,一定还要学会出场)

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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