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Global Markets Analysis – 07 December 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


07.12.2016 周三 油脂类商品反弹上行走势出现动能衰竭迹象;本波反弹上行短线走势接近尾声阶段

美盘豆油1月合约,昨日晚间创新高38.28,但终盘以上影线的小阳K线收盘,表明上方高点出现一定压力,从前期本波反弹上行走势运行10个交易日后(11月23日长阳开始至今),美盘豆油的本波短线反弹运行到了尾声阶段(存在上涨停滞现象),虽然我们中长期大的反弹(反转)观点没有发生变化,但考虑到更短周期的短线角度来说-却需要我们开始保持警惕心态了。

大陆内盘油脂类商品豆油与棕榈油1705主力合约,内盘上涨动能衰竭现象更为明显些,特别是豆油1705主力合约,期价已经连续8天在高位横盘窄区间阴阳K线震荡,盘中没有实质性的价格上涨,这种盘面信号更加提醒我们保持一份警惕心态。

马盘毛棕榈油基准2月,本周一与周二2天红盘中阳上涨,盘中多头主力的上攻欲望一直较强(强于内盘与美盘),在昨日周二盘中期价低开高走再创4年半来新高(3185令吉特),马棕榈的震荡反弹上行走势延续中,但考虑到马盘棕榈以往一直存在“鹤立鸡群”独立性格运行特征,再考虑到内盘与美盘较为疲软的走势,我们采取“中庸”思维模式 ,一强两弱-我们平均综合一下,依然给予马盘棕榈油谨慎看多情怀下的-逢高派发多单了结出场的操作建议,已经出局的散户朋友完全没必要羡慕,期价由于惯性上冲而出现的新高点(多单平仓永远不会平仓在最高点上)。

小结:油脂类商品前期反弹上行短线走势逐步靠近尾声,虽然我们中长线角度看多观点不变,但对短线角度的任何盘中不利信号均要保持一定的谨慎心态,特别是盘面上存在大量获利盘的情况下,本波短线行情我们采取的是更为积极主动的-逢高派发了结多单的建议,并且是越发力上涨越逢高出局的策略,目前我们保持这种观点不变,后市短线恐将出现冲高之后的回落整理走势(这句话现在说为时尚早一两日,但我们也提前说出来,好让大家明白)。多单完全出局后,交易者可暂时场外观望一下-如果此刻有更为激进型短线交易者想逢高少量空单进场埋伏,我个人观点也不反对该操作,但这仅限于激进型短线交易者,对于稳健型交易者大可不必有此操作。观点认为未来几天,油脂类商品有可能进行冲高回落的下挫整理要求,我们提前在心理上做一个准备。在后市短线运行中,我们会第一信号出现时通知大家。

[SUMMARY]
• Upward reversal of edible oils seems to be coming to an end.
• While we reiterate our long position outlook for the medium and long-term, we should remain cautious about the short-term signals.
• It advisable to close-out long position when prices are high, to secure profit and avoid a potential short-term downward reversal.

[ACTION]
• Traders who have close-out long position may remain uncommitted.
• Aggressive short-term traders may initiate short position in anticipation of a potential downward reversal.

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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