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Global Markets Analysis – 07 July 2016

A commentary written by Tony Tong


07.07.2016 周四 油脂类商品短线行情惊天逆转

美盘豆油12月合约追随美盘黄豆连期价下跌,但二者情况又有所不同-黄豆连是短线反弹之后的下挫,美豆油12月合约是从未反弹,始终保持的短线回落整理走势,因此上说,美盘豆油的下方回落空间将会有限,要远远小于美大豆。我们继续以下挫整理短空观点对待美豆油,但依旧是看空不做空。

大陆内盘油脂商品豆油与棕榈油1609主力合约,前期也是一周多的短线反弹上行走势,瞬间的风云突变令内盘油脂商品行情出现逆转,由于内盘期价曾出现过不同程度的走高,因此下方回落空间就相对大一些,对内盘油脂商品来说,周二与周三盘中在期价大幅波动时候,敏感的操作多单已经平仓了结兑现的散户朋友可反手短空交易或出场后观望。由于行情转变太快,尚未多单出局的交易者可适量部分反手空单进场,形成多空单子锁仓来规避风险,同时关注美盘豆油的后市走势。

马盘毛棕榈油由于马来西亚周三与周四为开斋节而停盘2天,明天周五将开盘,考虑到美盘与大陆内盘油脂商品的下跌拖累,马盘毛棕榈油9月明日恐将跳空低开低走,建议明日周五马盘开盘后第一时间,多单减持或者短空进场,多空仓单也形成锁仓来规避期价下跌带来的风险。

小结:美盘豆油短线回落整理延续中,大陆内盘油脂商品的短线反弹上行走势被终结,行情发生逆转,后市短线呈短空疲软走势,马盘明日开盘后必将追随,美盘与内盘油脂商品的短线疲软走势,观点认为操作上:多单尽量减仓,反手空单进场-或形成单边的短空持仓或形成多空仓单对锁局面,总之一句话-规避期价短线下挫带来的系统风险为第一任务,后市油脂类商品将有一定程度的下探走势,至于到底回落空间有多大,尚要看美盘豆油的具体走势意向。

This post is contributed by OPF Guest Blogger, Tony Tong.

Tong used to be a capital market service rep licensed by China Futures Association. He became a professional independent trader later on. He has more than 10 years of personal experience trading in commodity futures market and is adept at cross-market analysis to identify trading opportunities. He uses fundamental analysis to filter out the best investment products and technical analysis to determine entry and exit points and consider his trading style as moderately conservative while at the same, is also very good at medium-term position trading based on technical charts.
 

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DISCLAIMER: This post is written for general information only. The author, publisher and/or any third party involved in the distribution of this work assume no legal responsibilities and shall have no liability whatsoever for any direct or consequential losses, costs or expenses arising from the use of the information contained herein.

 






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